Another newbie question

[ald07]

Ok   as stated in previous post I am headed to Cali at the end of the month.  It is my first trip and anticipation is really building.  I have measured the dangers and they really dont't bother me.  I believe the chances of a low key person getting kidnapped or killed is minimal and you probably have a bigger chance of crashing in that comercial airplane your on then getting caught in a bombing...... So here's the question to those who truely understand the politics of Colombia and its government.........  What would be the chances of an anti-american military type coup occurring in Colombia.

[thundernco]

... in response to Another newbie question, posted by ald07 on Oct 14, 2003

In my opinion, it won't happen; no one anti-govt. group has sufficient power or support within the region.  According to the US govt., the Farc is the largest terrorist group in the world, numbering some 20K members.  Although they are large, they do not have suffiecient support from the majority of Colombians for a coup to occur.  While 20K is significant, the govt. military forces, AUC as well as others consider the Farc enemies, thus ensuring significant and sufficient opposition to any such coup.  -TNC

[cancunhound]

... in response to Re: Another newbie question, posted by thundernco on Oct 14, 2003

That # of 20K is much less of recent I believe.  Anyway, they basically operate in separate fronts scattered throughout the countryside from my understanding - any large scale of say 5K congregated would be picked up instantly on "radar" - it 'aint going to happen, it would be great if it would.  You'll notice in the news that basically confrontations involve numbers nothing more than the size of several platoons.  When they do successfully kidnapp - you'll see that they have to trek for weeks in small groups into remote locations to escape the military pursuit and avoid being extemely visible to the natives, who are not exactly on their side either.  There's also the matter of air power - of which the FARC has none, and that's critical in Colombia IMHO.  Of course, unfortunately - it only takes several FARC to make the lives miserable for a couple of tourists who dare to go birding.

The program on the history channel last week was excellent and detailed their operations.  They basically are spread thinly and are located in remote pockets protecting the coco and poppy, which are located in scattered remote areas - the actual fields are very small  - they had a very interesting stat - the combined area currently need to support the current worldwide demand is less than a square 22 miles on edge.  Pretty hard to combat a pocket here and a pocket there in a mountainous, jungle domain the size of California and Texas combined.

Back to the initial never-ending question, is it safe to go to Colombia?  If the media has implanted so much fear and reserve that one seriously struggles with the idea of visiting,  - I say don't go - that would seem to be an uncomfortable vacation from the get-go.  On the other hand, you can read through the lines on forums like this and that should alleviate that logic.

CaliGringo.com

[Kiltboy1]

... in response to Another newbie question, posted by ald07 on Oct 14, 2003

Slim to none.

Beleve it or not,Colombia is one the Americas best allies in that the goverment of Uribe and Bush are striving for the same things. Colombia is a democracy ,and the strongest in the region.The corruption that has been rampant in previous administrations , it not here.
Bottom line--won't happen !!!!

[CaliAdvisor]

... in response to Re: Another newbie question, posted by Kiltboy1 on Oct 14, 2003

I agree with your first statements: Colombia is Latin America's oldest democracy but don't think that there isnt corruption. It still exists and there are plenty of dirty politicians.

This guys question isnt all that clear. A military coup? The Guerilla has been trying to overthrow the government for years. When Uribe took office they actually stormed the Governmental Palace in Bogotá and killed over half of his cabinet. Uribe's own father was kidnapped and then killed by the Guerilla. This guy has seen it all and he is born fighter. But as far as a military coup as in one of the generals taking power. The chances of that are very small because Uribe is an ally of the army. Maybe the army could be infilitrated by Guerilla conspirators who would leak secrets to the Guerilla comanders. That is a much more likely story and is probably happening to this day.

[lswote]

... in response to Re: Re: Another newbie question, posted by CaliAdvisor on Oct 14, 2003

Aaron, work on your google search, willya dude? Governmental offices have been overrun by guerillas before, my wife showed me a shot up government building in downtown Bogota where many people where killed by guerillas, but it predates Uribe by many years.  DavidMN got it right about inauguration day

[thundernco]

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Another newbie question, posted by lswote on Oct 14, 2003

And elder Uribe was killed prior to his son's ascension into presidential office.

[CaliAdvisor]

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Another newbie question, posted by thundernco on Oct 14, 2003

q

[lswote]

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Another newbie question, posted by thundernco on Oct 14, 2003

Yes, but that was also some time before Uribe took office.

[Kiltboy1]

... in response to Re: Re: Another newbie question, posted by CaliAdvisor on Oct 14, 2003

You explained better what my point was. The corruption  needed to overthrow the govermet is not at the highest levels in the military because of the reason you stated.Uribe is friend of the military

[roadken]

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Another newbie question, posted by Kiltboy1 on Oct 14, 2003

The cabinet members were taken hostage and killed in the mid to late 1980's I believe.it did happen though.

[CaliAdvisor]

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Another newbie question, posted by roadken on Oct 14, 2003

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[DavidMN]

... in response to No we are talking about Uribe's Cabinet ..., posted by CaliAdvisor on Oct 14, 2003

The current president of Colombia simply has not had any of his cabinet members assassinated. Period. A Mr. Londono, I believe, who is equivalent to our Secy of Health and Human Services died in a plane crash earlier this Spring, but the plane was not shot down...it was mechanical failure or pilot error up in the mountains (it took about three days to find the wreckage).

There were all kinds of political assasinations including cabinet members, ex cabinet members, presidential candidates and a bunch of supreme court justices...but that was all back in the days of Escobar's one man war against civilization. Maybe you're confusing people or eras?

[Michael B]

... in response to Re: No we are talking about Uribe's Cabi..., posted by DavidMN on Oct 14, 2003

23 mayor candidates have been assisnated in the election they are having right now (2 of them as recently as this Saturday), 8 have been kidnapped and another 160 have withdrawn from their races, 1/3 of them citing death threats to themselves or their families (most likely, the other 2/3 had death threats as well and were simply too afraid to say so). Ingrid Bentancort(sp?) is still a prisoner, half the state legislators of Valle de Cauca state (the one that Cali is the capital city of) were kidnapped right out of the legislature chamber while they were in session, the retired minister of culture was kidnapped then execuited, the Catholic bishop of Cali was shot down while performing a marriage ceromony, the capital building was shelled during Uribe's inaguaration, killing 20 or so people in the street, all this in the last year and a half, what do you mean 'back in the days (of Escobar)'? Technicaly, your statement that none of Uribe's cabinet have been killed is true, but darn near every OTHER public figure has been. Running for office in Colombia is a death wish.

[DavidMN]

... in response to Death Wish, posted by Michael B on Oct 15, 2003

Michael, I'm aware of the events you mentioned. I was trying to convey the msg that the original poster, when talking about the current cabinet-level officials, had some incorrect information. That's all. -David