Dollar has more value vs Colombian Peso

[fathertime]

  BTW, ask California how much fresh water they have!

He had a tremendous downpour in all of Southern California a few days ago.  Like dependent fools, we don't capture rainwater very well here, and it will make little difference in our drought.  I've been transitioning into desert environment landscaping, which I like better anyway. 


We are slated to have an "El Nino" this year, and I believe it.  The seawater here is much warmer than usual. 


Fathertime!   

[robert angel]

No fiat currency has ever survived. Gold and silver have been money, i.e. a means of exchange for thousands of years. The Chinese are buying as much as they can with plans for a gold-backed currency that will replace the US dollar. Remember Zimbabwe - that is the future for the US and its toilet paper. BTW, ask California how much fresh water they have!

We can't be sure about exactly how much gold the Chinese and Russians have, but pretty much all lists don't even have them in the top five in terms of amount of gold being held by any one nation. But at present, even if the USA possessed ALL the gold that's EVER been mined since the ancient Egyptians started gold mining in earnest, it would barely pay off a third of our national debt. We have dug ourselves down into one mighty deep hole! We need to stop digging and do more climbing out of our own hole!

The Chinese economy isn't nearly as stable or solvent as we tend to think. They have been unfairly manipulating their, and in turn, other nation's currencies. Growth has stagnated. Even they admit that for each of their thousand or so billionaires, there are probably two more billionaires not reporting thier wealth. Like in Vietnam, corruption is rampant at all levels, in all sectors. To understand what 'Communism' is said to be, including a supposed antithesis to capitalism, it seems laughable at best. I think in coming months that the curent leadership will put forth a crackdown--another 'purge' in China, the likes of which the country hasn't seen since the ruthless 'Gang of Four' scoured the populous.

It's been said many times that if you had all the gold ever mined in one place, that it all would fit into two Olympic size swimming pools, but it's actually more like three and a quarter Olympic size swim pools. I just have our guest bathroom filled up. (Not!-- I wish)

The USA has a lot of gold still in the ground unmined, but it's generally thought that Russia has even more in the ground than the USA and that the Chinese have a lot more than the Russians. But it's pretty clear that as the USA and western European nations have felt for years, that having substantial gold reserves on hand is important, even if for just psychological importance. Gold holds an amazing psychological power. No country knows this more than India, which despite a population of almost 1.3 billion people and probably being the world's greatest purchaser of gold in recent years, comes in only  at number ten on most lists for gold reserves held.

What's interesting to me about the alleged amount of the USA's gold reserves, pegged at being  2 or 3 times more than any other nation's is that just as the govt. won't tell us how much paper money they're printing, nobody has seen the gold, much less gotten any reasonable confirmation of where it is and how much it 'really' is. We know it's not all at Fort Knox or in NYC's Federal Reserve, 80 feet below sea level.

Gold mining is a hard, dirty, toxic process and countries like Russia and China already, unlike the USA, have vast numbers of people who if they won't work for slave wages, will be replaced with prisoners, who'll do the mining for free. It looks like the Chinese and Russians are going to have more prisoners to sentence to long,  'heavy labor' (the mines) punishment than they have in a long time.

Rare earth elements, not all as rare as one might think, but found in such trace amounts that mining them in the USA is prohibitively expensive and toxic, illustrate the point. While they're used for such mundane uses as cellular phone components and cigarette lighter flints, many tons are also used in our most critical military weapons and communications equipment and because it'd cost too much to mine them here, we get 97% from the Chinese. But hey, then again a lot of our circuit boards and other components in our military's arsenal come from Asia.

 I'd like to think that in a real pinch, we'd find a way to dig our own gold, rare earth metals and produce all our critical military components here in the USA, but it won't be easy, that's for sure. Then again, we've had a mindset for quite a while that it's wiser to use everyone else's oil and get them to build and supply us with whatever we need in a most convenient manner. It makes economic sense short term and at least in terms of oil, we're reasonably well situated long term if we have to use our own. But when nations no longer work together cooperatively, the manner in which 'supply and demand' have worked in recent decades will become a wistful memory.

[benjio]

The theory that when the sh!t finally hits the fan and money as a 'currency' is no longer viable that gold and silver won't do you any good, may well be true. But historically, over thousands of years, all over the world, that hasn't been the case.

No fiat currency has ever survived. Gold and silver have been money, i.e. a means of exchange for thousands of years. The Chinese are buying as much as they can with plans for a gold-backed currency that will replace the US dollar. Remember Zimbabwe - that is the future for the US and its toilet paper. BTW, ask California how much fresh water they have!

All good points but when I wrote "$hit hits the fan" I was thinking of a much bigger picture....like extension level events. In the relatively short history of human civilization for the most part we haven't even had a taste of the worse mother nature can throw at us. Let a big enough asteroid collide with our planet, or a huge underwater earthquake that sends tsunamis hundreds of feet high in every direction and see how much gold and silver matter then. These are things we don't really think about because we have no experience with them. We're just aware they are possible. That's the point I'm trying to make though....they are possible.

[utopiacowboy]

All good points but when I wrote "$hit hits the fan" I was thinking of a much bigger picture....like extension level events. In the relatively short history of human civilization for the most part we haven't even had a taste of the worse mother nature can throw at us. Let a big enough asteroid collide with our planet, or a huge underwater earthquake that sends tsunamis hundreds of feet high in every direction and see how much gold and silver matter then. These are things we don't really think about because we have no experience with them. We're just aware they are possible. That's the point I'm trying to make though....they are possible.

In those scenarios the best currencies to have will probably be guns, ammunition and whiskey.

[fathertime]

....like extension extinction level events.

Made that right for you.


Fathertime!   

[robert angel]

In those scenarios the best currencies to have will probably be guns, ammunition and whiskey.

Well as I indicated, two out of the three have high potential as being a viable currency when 'money' as we now know it, isn't worth squat. I'm no gonzo 'survivalist' type, but I am glad I loaded up on ammo in almost all popular calibers when it was relatively inexpensive, as well as mil. spec. 33 round extended magazines for Glock handguns and modified (legally) light rifles. If you can even find 22 long magnum' or 380, it's ridiculous overpriced where we live.

My wife, all 88 pounds of her, asks me if we can go to the shooting range, can go from full sized 45, to a small 380 semi auto, to 9, 40 and finish off with a 38 revolver, shooting P loads, all quite accurately. She refuses to use our laser sights, saying: "What if the batteries die?" Oh--- she can reload faster than me too and if that's not embarrassing enough, the darn woman can fish too!

[buencamino]

I know what you mean Bob, I've loaded up on grenades (grey market here) and installed antipersonnel mines around strategic points on my property. They call them "sapas".  You can get all the good stuff here.

[utopiacowboy]

Anyone wanting a preview of where we are headed can check out Venezuela and how money dies. I have no doubt that we are headed there too and I have no confidence that any of the ass wipes and ass clowns running for president will stop the journey to hell any time soon.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-25/venezuelas-hyperinflation-crack-boom-its-way-outer-space

[buencamino]

Latest scientific thinking suggests that modern humans emerged about seventy thousand years ago. Between that time and 1950 when some posters were children the human population grew to two billion, five hundred million and change. In the short span of sixty five years from 1950 to present the human population grew another four billion, seven hundred and seventy five million and change.  Projections for 2050, just thirty five years from now are between nine and eleven billion. Where will the food and water come from? How much of the earths surface will be paved? Will older kids be saying hey remember when we could go outside? Will Homo sapiens even make it to the next ice age, the next meteor impact?

[fathertime]

I know what you mean Bob, I've loaded up on grenades (grey market here) and installed antipersonnel mines around strategic points on my property. They call them "sapas".  You can get all the good stuff here.

I only half thought you were kidding regarding the antipersonnel mines, but I know you probably aren't. 

Latest scientific thinking suggests that modern humans emerged about seventy thousand years ago. Between that time and 1950 when some posters were children the human population grew to two billion, five hundred million and change. In the short span of sixty five years from 1950 to present the human population grew another four billion, seven hundred and seventy five million and change.  Projections for 2050, just thirty five years from now are between nine and eleven billion. Where will the food and water come from? How much of the earths surface will be paved? Will older kids be saying hey remember when we could go outside? Will Homo sapiens even make it to the next ice age, the next meteor impact?

There is plenty of room on the land itself.  Actually even with the population where it is now, if all the world's people were to stand shoulder to shoulder we could still all fit in Los Angeles Country.  That is incredible to me.  In total about 108 billion people have been born in our history, of which 6% or so are alive currently. 


All that said, food and water, and all the other resources aren't going to be here forever.  The population growth is slowing though. According to some calculations population is going to peak out relatively soon, even without natural disasters or wars.  Sounds good to me. 


Fathertime! 

[robert angel]

I know what you mean Bob, I've loaded up on grenades (grey market here) and installed antipersonnel mines around strategic points on my property. They call them "sapas".  You can get all the good stuff here.

My kinda guy! We'll have to have you  over some time. I just need to remember to mention it to the wife, "Mrs. Asian Annie Oakley" lest she unknowingly pick you off as you pass through the picket fence. I guess she really took to that 'Castle Doctrine' concept--as the last guy she picked off fell on the other side of the fence, but having caught his shirt tail on the picket, she dutifully pulled him over to our side! Case closed.

Besides, in my older age I occasionally confuse where I planted the Claymore mines versus the hydrangeas and she's real good about that. We haven't been visited by Jehovah Witnesses in eons!  I tell you - - - never  underestimate a good (or really bad)  woman! 

[buencamino]

I only half thought you were kidding regarding the antipersonnel mines, but I know you probably aren't. 
Fathertime!

Yeah I have the dang things set too sensitive and keep blowing up the neighbor's chickens.

[fathertime]

Yeah I have the dang things set too sensitive and keep blowing up the neighbor's chickens.

hehe....you had me going for a minute there....I thought you were pretty hard core....kinda like Will Smith in the movie "I am Legend".   
 https://youtu.be/ouXaRXd7C0c
 


Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

In the past 3 weeks the dollar has gained further strength and has peaked at around 2981-1, very close to the magic number of 3000-1.   I imagine those living in Colombia are living high on the hog....my wife has been in Colombia for the past month and a half or so, and the timing has been good insofar as getting value for the dollars.  When she returns here next week, it won't matter to me as much if the dollar plummets, although I think it benefits me more if it stays high.


I had to go to the Colombian Embassy yesterday in Los Angeles, to take care of some pain the arse paperwork for my son's return...the Colombian workers there were quite unhappy with the dollar rising, as they are getting paid in Pesos. 


Fathertime!   

[robert angel]

In the past 3 weeks the dollar has gained further strength and has peaked at around 2981-1, very close to the magic number of 3000-1.   I imagine those living in Colombia are living high on the hog....my wife has been in Colombia for the past month and a half or so, and the timing has been good insofar as getting value for the dollars.  When she returns here next week, it won't matter to me as much if the dollar plummets, although I think it benefits me more if it stays high.


I had to go to the Colombian Embassy yesterday in Los Angeles, to take care of some pain the arse paperwork for my son's return...the Colombian workers there were quite unhappy with the dollar rising, as they are getting paid in Pesos. 


Fathertime!

With China devaluating their own currency three straight days in a row and some Euro nations still having pains, I think the prospects for the US dollar remaining relatively strong for the next 90 days at least are pretty good.

But hey--it's the 'markets' and trying to apply what you think is 'logic' doesn't always, or even 'often' apply! If it was that predictable, we'd all be rich! Example--yesterday the US dollar actually took a dive, as investors seemed to think that China was doing what the US Fed should be doing!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/13/china-devalues-yuan-for-third-straight-day-adding-to-fears-of-currency-war

http://www.wsj.com/articles/for-fed-dollars-strength-complicates-rate-hike-calculus-1433095334

Probably the soundest advice is to use the current high exchange rate to your advantage now, rather than waiting. Were redoing --putting tile in, on the floors of our house abroad now, rather than waiting.

Never put all your eggs in one basket, but I picked up a couple kilos of .999 silver at around $14.50 oz, with plans to unload them at $35. Most folks are targeting $40 to $50 to 'unload'.

[fathertime]

Probably the soundest advice is to use the current high exchange rate to your advantage now, rather than waiting. Were redoing --putting tile in, on the floors of our house abroad now, rather than waiting.

Never put all your eggs in one basket, but I picked up a couple kilos of .999 silver at around $14.50 oz, with plans to unload them at $35. Most folks are targeting $40 to $50 to 'unload'.

I was thinking along the same lines. For example, from what I've been told the housing prices have gone up quite a bit in Colombia, perhaps right along with the currency being devalued.  So the idea I thought about was: What if somebody simply exchanged their dollars when/if the Peso got to the level they were comfy with, perhaps 3000 or 3300 hundred, whatever and put it in the Colombian bank to earn interest.  Then the person waited until the Colombian housing market sank again (assuming it does), and then used the converted pesos from the powerful dollars to buy the house in Colombia at a low water time.   


Obviously there is some gambling going on there....no guarantee that the Peso won't weaken up further, or that housing in Colombia will go down.   That said, it seems to make sense that these things could happen.  It seems to me that the dollar's rise seems bubble'ish to me.


Fathertime! 

[robert angel]

I was thinking along the same lines. For example, from what I've been told the housing prices have gone up quite a bit in Colombia, perhaps right along with the currency being devalued.  So the idea I thought about was: What if somebody simply exchanged their dollars when/if the Peso got to the level they were comfy with, perhaps 3000 or 3300 hundred, whatever and put it in the Colombian bank to earn interest.  Then the person waited until the Colombian housing market sank again (assuming it does), and then used the converted pesos from the powerful dollars to buy the house in Colombia at a low water time.   


Obviously there is some gambling going on there....no guarantee that the Peso won't weaken up further, or that housing in Colombia will go down.   That said, it seems to make sense that these things could happen.  It seems to me that the dollar's rise seems bubble'ish to me.


Fathertime!

When it comes to timing things that are changeable, whether it's currency exchange rates, commodities, stocks--really a lot of things in general, I do a stupid thing too much. I set a nice round number as a target--like saying I'm going to wait for Philippine peso to dollar rate to hit 48--nice round number--or for silver to go down to $14.00 an ounce. I suppose 3000 for the USD to COP is a nice round number too. And it 'might' happen too.

But just like hitting any specific number is a crap shoot at best to start with, the kind of numbers (specific, popular, often 'round' numbers) I mention here also have psychological importance and for that and a number of reasons, we usually find they come up short and we lose opportunity. Sometimes they actually blow past those kinds of almost magical benchmark numbers, but typically, especially with those who tend to be over optimistic, the numbers we're waiting on don't materialize and we miss the 'sweet spot' where opportunity peaked. I know a lot of people expect to triple their money on silver--seeing it going from around $14.50 back up to $48.00+ where it wasn't that long ago. I'll be happy to get out doubling my money at $30, while there's still plenty of buyers hoping for $50.00.

[fathertime]

When it comes to timing things that are changeable, whether it's currency exchange rates, commodities, stocks--really a lot of things in general, I do a stupid thing too much. I set a nice round number as a target--like saying I'm going to wait for Philippine peso to dollar rate to hit 48--nice round number--or for silver to go down to $14.00 an ounce. I suppose 3000 for the USD to COP is a nice round number too. And it 'might' happen too.

But just like hitting any specific number is a crap shoot at best to start with, the kind of numbers (specific, popular, often 'round' numbers) I mention here also have psychological importance and for that and a number of reasons, we usually find they come up short and we lose opportunity. Sometimes they actually blow past those kinds of almost magical benchmark numbers, but typically, especially with those who tend to be over optimistic, the numbers we're waiting on don't materialize and we miss the 'sweet spot' where opportunity peaked. I know a lot of people expect to triple their money on silver--seeing it going from around $14.50 back up to $48.00+ where it wasn't that long ago. I'll be happy to get out doubling my money at $30, while there's still plenty of buyers hoping for $50.00.

true...3000 is an artificial number.  Really the international experts on finance should know where the number is likely to end up, and of course I was also speculating on Colombian real estate which  may not ever go down, or may in fact rise, due to inflation or other factors.    That said, what I stated was/is my line of thinking.  I just don't think the dollar is going to stay this high for years and years.  But then again, maybe our economy doesn't need exports as much, or people around the world will just keep buying our products which generally have a good reputation.   


The day isn't over, but the Peso touched 2998-1 this morning. 


Fathertime!   

[buencamino]

Paying out all time record of $2.983.12 today. $3.000.00 expected next week.

http://www.elpais.com.co/elpais/

[robert angel]

Hasn't it been over five years since it hit 3 thousand?  Bound to happen sometime, hit and go over 3K and sure as rain will fall, so will the exchange rate. Meanwhile,  if it looks good now and especially if inflation and prices on some products are low, NOW is probably a good time to spend down there.

[fathertime]

Hasn't it been over five years since it hit 3 thousand?  Bound to happen sometime, hit and go over 3K and sure as rain will fall, so will the exchange rate. Meanwhile,  if it looks good now and especially if inflation and prices on some products are low, NOW is probably a good time to spend down there.

Hey Robert,


From the charts I recall seeing, this is uncharted territory. 


Fathertime! 

[robert angel]

You're right. It was 689 COP to the USD in 1992 and has never reached 3000 before (not yet anyway)  If inflation isn't too bad and you choose to buy the right things, looks opportune about now.

[buencamino]

According to the El Pais article the previous record was $2968.88 on February 11th, 2003. Also mentions an inflation rate of 4.5% for 2015.

[Alabamaboy!]

For anyone living in Socal I found flights on American Airlines round trip from San Diego to Barranquilla with one stop in Miami each way for $390. I plugged in various dares and seems like good for the months of Sept and Oct anyway. Anyone finding property listing for around $100K USD in BAQ or MDE that look good, post them here to see what we can get for that much money. I have been looking and it seems to be slim pickings in that range

[buencamino]

Your 100k is almost 300 million pesos at current (and apparently rising) exchange rate. Don't get why you would say slim pickin's in that range. Also Medellin and Barranquilla are hugely different in every way so sounds like your criteria are wide open.