... in response to Big day in Colombia tomorrow, posted by Michael B on Jun 25, 2002Although Uribe has promised to stand up to the guerillas there are simply not enough government troops to win. Analysts have stated that it would take an army of 250,000 men to defeat the bad guys in Colombia and there are simply no funds to raise such a force. Foreign debt has put Colombia in a 'world of hurt' and most of the meaningful military equipment that we have already sent them is to be used for protecting US oil interests,i.e.; the oil pipeline. Any use of Blackhawks, for instance, has to be approved in advance by the US for even recon work if used for anything other than pipeline. Meanwhile the FARC, ELN and the Paramilitary have forcibly recruited the 'street gangs' all over the country as covert and overt soldiers. With these 'urban guerillas' the cities are indeed at risk. There have already been firefights in the streets of Medellin, roadblocks and kidnappings of counselmen in Cali and skirmishes and bombings in Bogota. Look for it to get much worse.
Government workers and Universities are still in various stages of striking throughout Colombia. This has been going on since the government's announcement in January that 'guaranteed cost-of-living' raises would not be paid and that some saleries would be cut back. Going to the university where my Novia teaches is a day-by-day adventure. Blocked entrances one day, bombs going off on campus the next. I spent more time the last trip sitting in Unicentro listening to the explosions than I did helping correct exams.
I am going to Cali next Wednesday to get her out of there for good. It should have happened in June, but the strike extended the semester to almost August this year. I want both of us out of Colombia before August. It will be anybody's guess as to the level of violence after that.
My father was a military advisor in Vietnam in 1956, and while this is certainly not comparable to that fiasco for the United States, what is going on from a terrorist viewpoint is very similar to those times. I did my tour of the bush in 1971. There have been many close calls during the last year that I have managed to avoid simply by virtue of instincts left over from military experience.
Colombia is a country where the citizens habitually travel. Weekends by a river making 'San Cocho', trips to the coast and parks, etc. When the locals stop traveling (as they have) it is time for naive tourists to really stay in the cities and keep very alert. We all think that things happen to someone else. I have spent enough time in Cali turning the TV up to drown out the gunfire to see where things are headed. My Novia and her nieces and friends have all been caught on the streets in downtown Cali in firefights in the last two months. Admittedly the shooting was between the police and lawbreakers of some sort, but the press does not report what the shooting was about. A bullet has no political or social convictions in any case.
So be aware!
