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Author Topic: Latest news from Ukraine regarding election.  (Read 10017 times)
Jack
Guest
« on: November 22, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

Looks like their could be some problems ahead.

Results from exit polls show Yushchenko ahead 54% to 43% for Yanukovych.  The counting is still going on but the figures the goverment is releasing shows Yanukovych with 49% and Yushchenko with 46%.

As of about 11:30pm Monday night their is a crowd on Khershatyk estimated to be around 150,000 and growing. A tent city has been set up on Khershatyk in the vicinity of Independence Square. Here are quotes from my Kiev manager as of about 20 minutes ago who had just left Khershatyk,......

Well, right now there are a lot of people on the independence square, a lot of people in tents and they are protesting against the results of the vote.
Now, the opposition leaders say that they are not giving up this time and that there is no chance they are leaving Kiev without positive results (power). They say that if the results of the vote are not going to change then the Executive branch of the government will be announced unlawful and that the real power will belong to people. They announced a national strike all over Ukraine.
They also asked all the people to not go to work and universities and strike!

They believe that police and the executives are going to try to destroy the "tent city" on the independence square at 2 a.m., that's why all the people are accumulating on the Independence Square to prevent it from happening.


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tim360z
Guest
« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Latest news from Ukraine regarding elect..., posted by Jack on Nov 22, 2004

Just in.  Thousands of Ukrainians are streaming into Kiev to join the protest.  Who will blink first?
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Jack
Guest
« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to 11AM EST, posted by tim360z on Nov 23, 2004

I think who controls the tanks will probably win.

It's going to be an interesting next few days you can bet.

I have seen the number of people from this one webcam almost double in the last two hours. It is estimated to be over two million people on Khershatyk right now.

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cherokee
Guest
« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Latest news from Ukraine regarding elect..., posted by Jack on Nov 22, 2004

I thought maybe G.W. could at least back a democracy that has a chance.

president@whitehouse.gov

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tim360z
Guest
« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Latest news from Ukraine regarding elect..., posted by Jack on Nov 22, 2004

According to CNN the people in the square are still in place. An emergency meeting of the Parliment is scheduled. Putin has sent his congratulations to the "winner" and the Russian election observers were the only ones to state the election was smooth and transparent.  

Here in the West we may condemn the elections,  however without an overwhelming turnout of people protesting...it will be 5 more years of the same thugs in power with Putin's blessing.  

Of course the regieme has mobilized and will try to ensure its position.  They have the soldiers and the tanks,  but the people....they have the numbers and the world is watching.  Winning democracy is not a passive sport.

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LP
Guest
« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Latest news from Ukraine regarding e..., posted by tim360z on Nov 23, 2004

[This message has been edited by LP]

...Actually it could be 10 more years. This guy could get a second chance even if his first term is a disaster. It's been known to happen in other countries with much more democratic experience than Ukraine.

If I know Ukrainains there'll be little or no violent civil unrest. They're emotional yes, but they tend to be all smoke and no fire because they're not well organized. They're also more civilized than many give them credit for. There may be isolated pockets of problems but in the end the people will accept whatever happens without much violence because they have much bigger everyday problems to deal with and the last thing they need is social upheavel. All FSU citizens are very cynical about politics based on feelings of resignation and a lack of empowerment. They have a long history of tuning out the government and focusing on their own lives. This isn't going to change overnight even if given a chance.

In time all this will fade away and it'll be back to life as before. They haven't enough experience with democracy to really do much about it, not to mention the mindset of Soviet rule still exists. It's why the guy got a majority in the first place. You can't rig 50% of the population you know, you simply have to chock it up to ignorance and fear. Besides, Yushchenko isn't exactly a choir boy either. He had the youth vote on his side but it wasn't enough to offset the old mentality. There are many parallels to the US election, not the least of which is suspected fraud.

Half of the people may not be happy with the outcome but both sides wanted the process to work so they'll eventually accept it and go back to their lives. Again, it's been known to happen in other countries where winning (or keeping) democracy seems to be about as passive as it can get. Not all is lost however, in time the people harboring the old mentality will pass on, the youth will gain power as they age, and the rest will simply wise up. Ukraine's day will come, it's just going to be slow in getting here. It's too bad they gave up all their nukes, otherwise we could simply "liberate" them now Wink

No having said all that it would be nice to see at least the people in some countries have the balls to make things right. I doubt it will happen though and the rule of law must be maintained or things will go down the toilet in a hurry.

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tim360z
Guest
« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Latest news from Ukraine regarding e..., posted by LP on Nov 23, 2004

Well,  I must agree.  But, when it comes to a people kicking out the thugs which rule them...I'll bet my $1 on the people.  The people of former Eastern European countries have surprised us in the recent past.

These things can take on a life and momenteum of all their own and it is diffcult to predict the outcome.  But a seed has been planted and eventually there will be a change.  Pardon my optimism.

The regiemes smart move would be to let the protesters run out of wind.  Give them some time to vent.  No tanks, no soldiers,  no nothing.  And then...the protesters will be all tuckered out.  Then things will return to the way they were.  

At this moment there are not enough protesters,  maybe 200K according to Reuters.  This # could grow.

But,  the regieme could unwisely bring in the tanks.  And that will not work out very well.  Will the soldiers fire upon the babushkas?

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LP
Guest
« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Re: Latest news from Ukraine regardi..., posted by tim360z on Nov 23, 2004

[This message has been edited by LP]

....The Interior Ministry (the law enforcement arm in Ukraine) released a statement saying there are 40,000 to 50,000 people in Independence Square and only 150,000 demonstrating nationwide in support of *both* candidates. They did this specifically to refute what they call "serious inaccuracies" in the number being reported by western media. Fact or fiction? Who knows. Myself, I seriously doubt there are two million people there and tend to believe the Interior Ministry because it jives with what I know about Ukrainians: That they have bigger personal issues to deal with and long ago became resigned to dealing with government. For the masses, it's all about apathy. Sure the turnout was high but that's about as far as it goes.

I wonder what would've happened had the tally come out in Yushchenko's favor? Would the PM's supporters have come out in force? Would *he* be crying fraud? Or worse, refuse to step down? The US backs Yushchencko so it's natural they'll cry fraud. Putin backs the PM and called to congratulate him on a tough fight but an "honest" election. It's all political BS and more examples of the US and Russia meddling in the internal affairs of other countries. Elections are seldom "fair", especially to the losing side. It's an interesting parallel with our own. Fraud is usually claimed, esepcially by the losing side. That's why they call it politics. The only thing for certain is that it was a shame the state controlled media favored the PM. Had they not the tally may have been wider in Yush's favor. Yush comes across to me as a sore loser, much as the Kerry people did. Not that I blame him, when one truly understands what's at stake it's easy to be one. Also, post election emotions are always high but almost always give way to pacification.

I seriously doubt the cops/troops will fire on the people. (They aren't the French down on the Ivory Coast Wink. From reading years of Russian and Ukrainian crime logs ands newspaper articles it seems they don't have that mindset. They seldom use their service weapons, even during crimes commited against themselves. I agree they should let it play out but I still feel it's all huff and puff and will be non-violent. Just reading all the reports prior to the first election shows these people (including the cops and military) to be fairly benign rather than truly violent. I beleive the cop's and military's loyalty lies towards the people as a whole, they're not the mindless automatons many other nations have developed. However, the rule of law must be upheld to prevent anarchy.

I may be wrong but I think it's inaccurate to lump this event into what one would expect from some other countries. It may get decided by their Supreme Court (lol, we know how that goes) but no matter what happens it won't result in the country's downfall. It's more of a forward looking issue than a step backwards. All that will happen is everyone will have to suffer the status quo for the wants of a slim majority. Then again as you said, things can take on a life of their own.

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tim360z
Guest
« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Latest news from Ukraine regarding e..., posted by LP on Nov 23, 2004

Yeah.  Numbers.  Haven't seen the 2 million # in the media.  200,000 today in Kiev was the # the news was using.  From the Reuters photos I saw, that # seems accurate +/-.  Alot of people.  A mixture.

Also read other cities have had large protests.  In the West and North. Lviv,  200,000.  And some smaller cities with less.

Like a good game of tennis or chess,  the player that makes the big mistake will loose this round.

Yush?  He needs the momenteum to build and he is certainly helping orchestrate it.  If the momenteum does not build and people go back home...party's over.  On the other hand if a few million get caught up in the fervor...it will be a show.

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ARTILLARY
Guest
« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Latest news from Ukraine regarding elect..., posted by Jack on Nov 22, 2004

If the current power tries to steal this vote the  opposition,(Yuschenko), needs to have a re-count and then check all the names. Many people were forced to vote twice just at different polling places. As soon as they were done voting, the Yanochovich thugs bused them to another  place to vote again. While they placed their vote they were told not to fold their ballot as it was dropped into the box and then threatened with life or job if they voted for Yuschenko. I'm so proud of my friends. They gathered together and did not leave one another and proved to be a great force together. They vowed to die if their chance for democracy was stolen from them. This is real life friends. We don't have the best system but be thankful your life is not in danger when you got to cast your vote!! I wish all of them well and will be checking and calling often to make sure they're safe. Artie
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david hagar
Guest
« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Latest news from Ukraine regarding e..., posted by ARTILLARY on Nov 22, 2004

On the BBC, it has been just been reported that the crowd in the tent city was going home.

Beattledog

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Scaught
Guest
« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Re: Latest news from Ukraine regardi..., posted by david hagar on Nov 22, 2004

Too bad they don't have oil... we could liberate them then.
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david hagar
Guest
« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Latest news from Ukraine reg..., posted by Scaught on Nov 23, 2004

I agree
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