Euro is now in Russia

[apk]

My wife Anna was just reading in the local news that the "Euro dollar" is now available in Russia. She was worried that the "USD" in Russia will lose value because Russians will no longer be able to use them , forcing them to sell them cheaply to buy the req'd Euro and drive up prices throughout Eastern Europe, causing inflation without shoring up wages to compensate.

The bad thing about this...is that our USD will be worth even less for when we travel to Russia, which we are planning to do when she gets her green card next year.

The good thing is the inflation will inflate the value of her property, she owns 2 flats...one of which she is getting ready to sell
in Moscow, it is only a one room flat and never upgraded. When she left Moscow 3 months ago, it was worth maybe $20k USD and now she is finding out it is worth $40k. (smile) Her 3 room flat will maybe be worth $100k...a nice retirement nestegg (smile).

Does anyone else have insight as to the change in fiscal policy in the FSU?  What are the reprocussions
Personally I think it will do less harm than she thinks because the Euro will be more stable than the Ruble has ever been.

Tootsie, what are your thoughts?

[Tootsie]

... in response to Euro is now in Russia, posted by apk on Dec 15, 2001

We say here: “A dollar is a dollar, even in Africa”:).

US Dollar is growing up (it’s over 30 now) and doesn’t seem to be going to fall down.

They are going to sell Euro in 2002 but I don’t think people will run to banks to exchange their beautiful green dollars for this new currency. We still like green colour .

Recently I was also pleasantly surprized by asset prices. Last summer I thought about selling my flat and I could get only $27K for it. Now it’s over $40K.

Anna is lucky that she never upgraded her one-room flat. If she did she would still get no money for it (or $1000 as maximum for $10 000 “fresh” remodelling). By the way, she can always check up prices for assets on www.izrukvruki.ru).

Regards,

Tootsie

[wsbill]

... in response to Euro is now in Russia, posted by apk on Dec 15, 2001

Look at all the stronger currencies of the world.  The old greenback is still there.

With Japan, Germany and USA in a recession right now.  Three major powerhouses....

But it's the USD that will always be stronger than any other currencies, we actually set the standard for the world to follow.

Note that's why they hit the WTC.  To try and make the world go into a economical crisis, instead.  Our economy which is highly controled among many institiutions were actually steering our markets into a recession, and the Sept. 11 attacks were actually a godsend since they aided our economy into setting the bottoming of the correction.

Everybody is saying short stocks right now..  A clear indicator the markets are about to go up for a possible 'Santa Claus Rally' or the January effect.

No doubt the EU is a new currency, but they will away take the back seat to the USD.

[WmGo]

... in response to Euro is now in Russia, posted by apk on Dec 15, 2001

This is actually old news. The introduction of the Euro to Russia has been in the planning for many years. There was news converage on this in the US media several weeks ago.  I do not think that Euros are actually available yet there, but they will be next year in terms of acceptable legal tender. The Euro becomes  the only legal tender in member European countries on January 1. I seriously doubt that it will ever match the dollar in value given the fact that European countries are so socialized and subsidized. The news articles on the intro of the Euro to Russia pointed out that it was a forgone conclusion that the Dollar would remain the currencey of choice in that country. One thing we must remember is that only Rubles are considered as legal tender. When in Russia, you have to convert (trade) your Dollars for Rubles in order to buy and sell. Of course most people will accept Dollars, but it is not required. Dollars will always be available in Russia, as it is a major hedge against inflation, Russia is a free country, and the European Union would of course never seek to have Russia or any other country outlaw the trading of Dollars. Yes, the Euro could cause an inflation problem depending on how they are introduced. Market forces should minimize any inflationary impact, at least hopefully. This would be another reason for Russians to invest in Dollars. Remember, as they need to make purchases, they simply trade the Dollars for (more) Rubles.

The above notwithstanding, let me take this opportunity to predict the future: The Euro will eventually *replace* all of the currencies of Europe - Britain as well as Russia. The Japanese will convert to the American Dollar. African and Asian countries will also convert to Euros or Dollars. The Central and South American countries will convert to the Dollar. Eventually, with only two world currencies, the final push will be made to go to a single currency, probably the Dollar. All transactions will be entirely electronic. All the world will be totally cashless. Initially everyone will have a debit card with an iris scan ID. Then the debit "card" will be permanently affixed to the human body...

[Cold Warrior]

... in response to The Future is Now, posted by WmGo on Dec 15, 2001

Look at any bar code. The first,middle and last numbers are a 6.

[WmGo]

... in response to 666, posted by Cold Warrior on Dec 15, 2001

That is scary, but par for the course and on schedule. I am thankful, as I am sure you are also, that the Bridegroom will receive unto himself His Bride before the proverbial cow dung hits the fan. Oh, to be a spectator of the Earth in those days!

[Dan]

... in response to The Future is Now, posted by WmGo on Dec 15, 2001

Eschatology - in addition to law???  --smile--

Seriously, yours is an interesting view of the manifestation of the prophecies about the 'mark'.

Best Regards,

- Dan

[WmGo]

... in response to William, Are You Taking Up . . . ., posted by Dan on Dec 15, 2001

Hey Dan!

Yeah, I have been studying world history and Bible prophecy since my teenage years. I find both very interesting. I'm actually not for certain if the mark will be some kind of tatoo bar code, an implanted computer chip or just a simple brand. Whatever it is, it will come to pass. One of the secretaries in my office told me the other day that she has recently seen people with bar code tatoos!

It is an exciting time to be alive!

WmGo

[BubbaGump]

... in response to Euro is now in Russia, posted by apk on Dec 15, 2001

The Euro has been declining against the dollar since its inception.  It was intended to be worth more than the dollar and it was hoped the Euro would become a prefered currency but the dollar is still a more popular currency worldwide, partly just because of the large number of people that use it.  The dollar has held up very well against other currencies.

As for selling her apartment it sounds like the demand for that location must be very good and Russia is prospering a little more.  You have to worry more about taxes, currency fluctuations and the Russian economy going bust.

[BubbaGump]

... in response to Don't worry about it, posted by BubbaGump on Dec 15, 2001

The dollar is up 12% versus the Euro over 2 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=USD&t=EUR&a=1&c=2

The dollar is up 11% versus the British pound over 2 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=USD&t=GBP&a=1&c=2

The dollar is up 11% versus the German Mark over 2 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=USD&t=DEM&a=1&c=2

The dollar is up 11% versus the Russian rouble over 2 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=USD&t=RUB&a=1&c=2

The dollar is down versus the Ukrainian hryvnia over 2 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=USD&t=UAH&a=1&c=2

The dollar gained strength over several major currencies over the last 2 years but has had short term problems from the terrorist attacks and recession.  There is a worldwide recession and the effect is often greater on other countries.  Some of the currency shift could be inflationary.  

I also don't trust currenct speculation.  

Our disagreements get so technical sometimes.

[DE]

... in response to Don't worry about it, posted by BubbaGump on Dec 15, 2001

Speaking from trading in currencies and other commodities, I can tell you that the dollar is falling against most currencies right now except for the Japaneese yen which has taken a brutal beating the last couple of weeks.  Personally I'm selling the yen and buying the Canadian dollar which is reaping gains over the fall of the US dollar.  With the stock market failing to establish any major bull trend, and the recession looking like it will last longer then initially forcasted, I'd expect to see further devaluation in the US dollar over the near term.  Hence the fall of the Japaneese yen and the rise in the Canadian dollar (also Swiss Franc and other foriegn currencies).  Therefore, I'd watch the Euro as it may make gains over the dollar in the near future.  Since I don't trade the Euro, I can't give you what the current trend is with it.  Although I'm sure the US dollar will always be accepted in Russia, and is a better safe haven than the Ruble or Grivina for stability, it may not be the best currency for assest appreciation for savings at the moment.  Any relatives you have may want to exchange Rubles into other foriegn currencies (Canadian dollar, Swiss Franc, etc.) to take advantage of the sliding dollar.  They can later exchange the other currencies into dollars at a later time to take advantage of the future rise of the dollar.  FWIW

[DE]

... in response to Re: Don't worry about it, posted by DE on Dec 15, 2001

Fri 12/14/01

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: The market appears oversold, but may continue to become more oversold before reversing. Look for some price strength before taking any bullish positions based on this indicator.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-0.65) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is in bearish territory.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-0.56) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is in bearish territory.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-167.02) recently crossed below the sell line into bearish territory, and is currently short. This short position should be covered when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (-167.02) is currently short. The current short position will be reversed when the CCI crosses above zero.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is up. However, a falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is less than DMI-, indicating a downward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

Additional Analysis: DMI is in bearish territory.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 41.14). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 41.14). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Volume is trending lower. In general this is bearish.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed below the SlowD line; this indicates a sell signal. The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 1.57; this indicates a possible market rise is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. SlowK is showing the market is oversold. Look for a bottom soon.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 11.46); this indicates a possible market rise is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. SlowK is showing the market is oversold. Look for a bottom soon.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.

Note: The above analysis is computer generated from mathematical formulae, and is provided for educational purposes only. Neither the above, nor any information on this site is intended as a trade recommendation.

[DE]

... in response to Re: Don't worry about it, posted by DE on Dec 15, 2001

EuroFX (EC,CME)

Analysis
Fri 12/14/01

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is UP.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.

Additional Analysis: The market appears overbought, but may continue to become more overbought before reversing. Look for some price weakness before taking any bearish positions based on this indicator.

Volatility Indicator: The volatility trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, has just switched to up.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (0.01) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is in bullish territory.upside move is likely.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (0.97) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is in bullish territory.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (188.21) recently crossed above the buy line into bullish territory, and is currently long. This long position should be liquidated when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (188.21) is currently long. The current long position position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is rising.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is down. A rising ADX indicates that the current trend is healthy and should remain intact. Look for the current downtrending market to continue.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is greater than DMI-, indicating an upward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

Additional Analysis: DMI is in bullish territory.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 61.18). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 61.18). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence before getting too bearish here.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bullish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bullish territory.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP. Volume is trending lower. In general this is bearish.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed above the SlowD line; this indicates a buy signal. The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 96.42); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. SlowK is showing the market is overbought. Look for a top soon.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 88.00); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. SlowK is showing the market is overbought. Look for a top soon.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.

Note: The above analysis is computer generated from mathematical formulae, and is provided for educational purposes only. Neither the above, nor any information on this site is intended as a trade recommendation.

[micha1]

... in response to Don't worry about it, posted by BubbaGump on Dec 15, 2001

Do not bet against the Euro for the future.
Many of the nationalists, in those 15 countries, and in the opposition did their best to sink it.  The british will have to
fall in line or go broke.
Sure there is a war and no one is worry now, but it will end.
And the Allende (and his chief of staff) scandal will pop up again.
The euro is money of the future.