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Not to scare anybody out of going, but ELN is sure making trouble in Santander. About a month ago they killed my novia's cousin--"pay the ransom or we will kill your wife and daughter"--well he paid, but they wanted more---he paid again and they wanted more again...he said there ain't no more and they killed him.....She told me a couple of days after it happened but I never posted it here until now. His widow and daughter are moving (or maybe they already have, forgot to ask) to Venesuela, (ELN never did actually take them, and then they went into hiding) where she has relatives.

Last night she told me that Friday they kidnapped three guys from her office and stole their government car. Two of them escaped (or were released, I didn't quite understand which) Saturday and the third Sunday. All three were pretty beat up and scared to death. The ELN told them something along the line of "Nobody would pay a ransom for you small potatoes, go back and tell your boss were're going to get HIM".  Tuesday the government is sending a special "anti terrorist" squad to protect their office and will be sending some of them to Bogota to take some kind of "protect yourself from terorists" course.

... in response to ELN, posted by Michael B on Jul 17, 2001

Colombia needs their own Fujimori. Someone who knocks heads and plays to win.

... in response to Re: ELN, posted by Wasp on Jul 18, 2001

Colombia needs to do some serious butt kicking.I think they have the ability but not the will.They are letting 50,000 or so rebels really screw the country up. That is what they are going to get untill they do something about it,they deserve it in a perverse sort of way.I think Pastrana is Colombia's Jimmy Carter,a nice guy who tries to make everybody happy and winds up being totally ineffective.Everybody would like to believe they can just sit down and talk it out and everything will be OK.Thats not working at all so they better get real and get tough.

Pete

... in response to Re: Re: serious butt kicking needed, posted by Pete E on Jul 18, 2001

Pete,
According to CNN, the FARC has 15,000 active fighters, the ELN has 5,000. Total of 20,000 active rebels. Usually estimate that there are 3-4 active sympathizers per actual fighter.

The Colombian National Police has around 120,000 members and the Military has 100,000 members. However, ONLY 30% of the Army is actively involved in the campaign. The AUC has 7-11,000 members and is growing faster than the other players.

Why do these numbers matter? According to conventional wisdom from the Vietnam era, a conventional army needs at least 10 times more soldiers than a guerilla force to prevail.

Throw in the other factors: Until recently the Colombian army was manned by draftees from the lower classes of society, that Colombia has a very rugged terrain, that Colombia has a long history of violent civil strife, that the guerrillas are getting steady financial support via drugs and kidnapping and you have a recipe for a long war.

While we can criticize Pastrana, one take on the situation is that he has to exhaust all peace possibilites before he can rally the country for all out war. It is unclear whether the Plan Colombia aid from EEUU is having much impact at this point, as many have pointed out the price of cocaine has stayed steady.

There will be peace, but first there will be war.

http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2000/colombia.noframes/

... in response to Politics and war.  Need more soldiers in..., posted by NW Jim on Jul 19, 2001

Good points...I'm pretty bearish on Colombia's prospects myself.  I just don't see how there is anyway around an all out war down there. It's really wierd in many ways. On one hand you have this band of guerillas/terrorists and on the other you have 95% of the nation trying to live normal lives.  I would have never thought that I would go to a country in the middle of a civil war.  Sure, you know something COULD happen, but it always seemed safe enough on the coast.  

To be honest, I just don't see Colombians having the 'toughness' deep down that I have seen with other nationalities, particularly the asians.  I have a duck-hunting buddy who was stationed 'as a civilian' in Bogota at the time Pablo Escobar was taken down.  My friend is no pencil pusher either. West Point, 82nd Airborne, Ranger, served in Vietnam in combat. While hunting this past winter, he told me he thought the FARC would fold the first time anyone brought any real force to bear on them, or the first time they would see their buddy's head blown off right in front of them.  I guess my problem with that is, who is gonna bring it on? The Colombian Army? Puleeeeze.

Later,
Mike

www.sparhard.com

... in response to Politics and war.  Need more soldiers in..., posted by NW Jim on Jul 19, 2001

A country of 30,000,000 can muster up some more troops to turn around its sorry economic and political situation.All thats needed is the will.Maybe you are right,Pastrana needed to try,but the rebels are taking advantage of his cautious approch.They are going down the toilet fast.They need to get serious with these guys who are such an impediment to any economic progress and foreign investment and tourism.Colombia is a beautifull country.It has so many natural resourses and good people.I would love to travel around more but I am afraid to.They could do so much better if they stabalized their situation.
Also they need to get petty criminals under control,but you need a good and honest police force,another thing they are lacking.
The common people are the main victims of all of this.They need to demand the government do better,and give them the support to do so.
I guess its easy for us to say.Our ansestors did it for us.

Pete

... in response to Re: Re: serious butt kicking needed, posted by Pete E on Jul 18, 2001

Jimmy Carter? Jimmy Carter would be an improvement, their president reminds me more of Nevil Chamberlin.