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One million Russians could die from Aids in the next decade unless urgent measures are taken to stop its spread. Richard Beeston Diplomatic Editor of The Times, reports from Moscow.

What evidence is there to suggest an explosion of HIV and Aids in Russia?

Vadim Pokrovsky, the director of the Centre for the Prevention of Aids in Moscow, believes that the real figure of HIV sufferers could be ten times as high as the current estimate of 182,000. If this is true then it puts Russia in the same league as some African countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and Zimbabwe.

Russia has many public health problems so it could be a terrible disaster. Men are now dying younger, at an average age of 59. Russians also have a problem with alcoholism - indeed they are an addictive society.

Why have half of the 182,000 people diagnosed with HIV contracted it in the last year?

Undoubtedly it is linked to drugs. In the mid to late 1990s there was a massive increase in the use of cheap heroin imported from Asia. A generation of serious drug users has now spread it to their friends and sexual partners and different sections of society. In recent years there has also been a relaxation of sexual mores in Russia, and this has contributed too.

How seriously do Russians take the threat of Aids?

Russians are aware of it, but I don't think they realise just how much of a danger it poses. This is something of a hangover from the days when Aids first emerged in the West in the 1980s. Russians felt they were isolated from the condition and to some extent they were. Initially they did not really care about what was happening in the West. That has changed, but there still remains a Russian attitude that Aids is something that happens to people in other cultures.

How has the Kremlin reacted to the warning?

Mr Pokrovsky said that he is being completely ignored by President Putin's Government and I suspect that he is probably right. Aids is not in the immediate sights of the Government. While it was supportive of America's action against Afghanistan, succeeding in temporarily cutting off the heroin supply into Russia, Aids will be a problem in ten years, which is not pressing enough to get them to act now. Mr Pokrovsky has asked the Government for £53 million to pay for a programme to educate people on safe sex and Aids, but at the moment Russia's Aids programme receives only £4 million a year.

Would the measures used to combat Aids in the West work in Russia?

There is a currently a return to Soviet-style prudishness in Russia. Both the Church and national politicians are against sex education, and there is a backlash against the perceived tide of Western values that they believe has left Russian society awash with sex and vice. So, Russia is not prepared to discuss safe sex. The only thing that could change that would be if a celebrity or leading politician who was suffering from the virus – Mr Pokrovsky said he is treating some, though, he declined to name them – were to come out and talk about it openly. This happened in the West and greatly helped awareness, though somehow I think Russia is long way from that yet.

... in response to AIDS epidemic in Russia, posted by Cold Warrior on Feb 21, 2002

Because everyone had their pants down doing the wild thang.
Isn't it strange how Russia was once this super power and now it's hanging by a thread.

The only thing they have going for them is the oil fields in the East.  Unfortunely for them, the Western world is now turning to PowerCell technology and in the next 20 years, we won't be all so dependent on oil.

Hence, what will Russia export?

The current young generation wants to be like American/European and have all that materialistical things. The older generation will of course die off.

Russia will no doubt with it's 19th Century lifestyle will never catch up with the rest of the world.  The AIDS explosion will really tax their hospitals and will make their cities in the future look like the walking dead.  Literly.

... in response to Re: Russia going to vanish like the Roma..., posted by wsbill on Feb 22, 2002

I think they are more like 50 years behind Western countries,  which is really quite an acclomplishemnt when you realize that in the 17th century...they were about 500 years behind in most areas and departments.  Like serfdom and slavery,  to mention a few.  And,  they have never had the chance to flourish like the Roman Empire did.  For all its faults,  the Roman Empire had an incredible standard of living...Russia never has.  Unless they are able to conquer the incredible corruption,  top to bottom...things will probably not progress very much.

... in response to Re: Russia going to vanish like the Roma..., posted by wsbill on Feb 22, 2002

One thing I've learned about Russia and it's people is that they are very resilient. The country as a whole has survived hundreds of years of events that make the present look not bad. There are many people who feel there is great hope that Russia will become great again.

Russia has vast untapped natural resources. Once the rest of the world sucks dry their limited resources they will be begging to get what Russia has. Russians are not as backwards as many people want to believe.

The western world isn't all that far away from collapsing economically like Russia did. But even if it happens we will survive and adapt to the new world. Just like the Russians are doing now.

... in response to I doubt it!, posted by Zink on Feb 22, 2002

My encounters with russian/ukrainians is that they are quite educated and quite aware of the challenges of life.  They will counter the AIDS epidemic with prevention and awareness, just as the US is doing (who they will copy).  They are not stupid or uneducated and their level of AIDS will be dependent on unmarried AIDS carriers having sex, just as it is in every other country (including the US).  By the way, using a codom has a 1 in 6 chance to fail to prevent aids.  That means, have sex with an AIDS infected individual, with a condom, 6 times and you will catch a disease which has no cure an 100% fatality.

... in response to They will rebound, posted by Mark W on Feb 23, 2002

That makes condoms absolutely worthless as protection from AIDS. I don't think think the infection rates are that high. Also, the transmission rates from women to men are much less that from men to women.

-blm

... in response to I doubt it!, posted by Zink on Feb 22, 2002

great???  If you could educate me on that era of greatness I would appreciate it.  And please,  not the cold war era.

... in response to Zink,  When ever historically was Russia..., posted by tim360z on Feb 22, 2002

Okay you got me. Compared to contemporary Western countries Russia has always lagged behind in many areas. But it has also been a very influential and powerful country for all that.

In many ways it is amazing what Russia has accomplished over the years considering what they were up against. They won wars against Sweden and Turkey when those countries were the powerhouses in Europe. They practically swallowed Poland a few different times. There was a time when Poland was the great empire of Europe. Russia also lost some wars too but always rebounded stronger than before.

My point was that Russia is far from gone as a world power. In a historical sense what has happened over the last 10-20 years is a minor set back. Only the future will show what will really happen.

I don't know if there was ever a "golden age" for Russia. But for hundreds years and even today they are a power to be reckoned with.

... in response to Re: Zink,  When ever historically was Ru..., posted by Zink on Feb 22, 2002

Hey Zink,
   Historically,  the really sad part about Russia has always been the complete domination of the people by 1% of the population.  The czars for almost 1000 years tried and succeeded in keeping the other 90% in feudal thrall.  When western europe was experiencing the rennaisnace,  Russia was still in the virtual 11th century...with the exception of the czar,  his court and various beauracratic minions.  The royalty sucked the blood of the peasants...which was virtually everybody.  When the Lenninists took control they were nearly as bad.  Gulags were not a Stalinist invention...or a Beria invention or the KGB...they copied all this from the czars.  The czars had centuries to perfect domination...something the communists were only too happy to continue,  just a new propaganda line.  My heritage is 1/2 Russian and I am always disappointed that the great mass of people do not exercise the power they possess.  Unfortunately,  they are "cowed".  They are used to this.  Here,  if we had to live their life---all of us USA people would rise-up and throw the bums out.  Historically,  Russians are predisposed to domination by a very very few.  They accept this.  They are accustomed to this...life is life.

... in response to Re: Re: Zink,  When ever historically wa..., posted by tim360z on Feb 22, 2002

I can't argue with what you're saying. The Russian spirit seems to be one of grim determination to survive. I agree that they don't fight against authority as much as the west does. There were some instances of success for the lower classes. The Pugachev rebellion forced Catherine the Great to relax many of the controls over the peasants. But Pugachev himself was executed. And Catherine herself was German not Russian. She fought her own aristocracy to enforce her reforms. And compared to events like the French Revolution reforms in Russia were miniscule.

To me Russia has always been a country of extremes. Russia is famous for the courage, honour and kindness of her people. And at the same time it is a place where some of the worst atrocities in history have happened. Anyone who thinks that Stalin and his government were good is a blind fool. He executed more Russians than the Germans did.

But from what I saw in Russia and have read in different articles here there seems to be a growing optimism. There are many young people who feel that they can make a difference in Russia. Maybe the next revolution won't be exchanging a corrupt, incompetitant tsar for a corrupt, brutal dictator. Attitudes are changing in Russia. When you have a people who are inured to hardship and willing to fight for their cause amazing things can happen.

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Zink,  When ever historicall..., posted by Zink on Feb 22, 2002

which has never occured before,   for the common person there.  They now all know that there is a world beyond their world.  Some are hungry to go to it...some think,  " Why can't this happen here".  It is communication and technology and the internet and a growing awareness of the world.  It will take some time,  I think.  Sometimes one never knows.  Not even the top experts predicted the swift fall of communism---until after the fact.  In the future I calmly hope for the best for them.

... in response to AIDS epidemic in Russia, posted by Cold Warrior on Feb 21, 2002

It is endemic and world over.  How many people in North America have aids and do not know about it.
And I am not talking about gay only.
Perhaps a lot of people are or will die from alcool in the eastern countries, but how many will die in North America
from eating fast food.  
Who knows?

... in response to AIDS epidemic in Russia, posted by Cold Warrior on Feb 21, 2002

That's why I've been such a prude so far.  I am thinking about that risk.  I would not consider any girl that looks unhealthy even though that's not a good indication.  I would rather get the results of the doctor's exam first.

... in response to Re: AIDS epidemic in Russia, posted by BubbaGump on Feb 21, 2002

Bubba,
You are right, looking healthy has nothing to do with it.  Russia is a very backward nation in regard to birth and STD control.  As much as I applaud Russia's education system, their sex education just plain sucks.  When abortion is a primary birth control method, there is something very wrong with the lack of education.  If they cannot control unwanted pregnancies, how on earth can they begin to control STD's?  "Safe sex" is a new frontier for them.
KenC

... in response to Sex Ed lacking in Russia, posted by KenC on Feb 21, 2002

Sex education in the USA has just encouraged more sexual activity.  I don't think there is really any such thing as safe sex except a complete latex body condom preventing any actual contact.  Or maybe a space suit.  Kissing and oral sex present some risk.  

I can't believe some of these guys go trolling for prostitues.  That's risky and stupid.  If the woman is easy then the woman is risky.  

... in response to Don't agree, posted by BubbaGump on Feb 21, 2002

It is a fantasy to beliieve Russians don't understand sex educaation. My girl certainly does, and not by my beating it into her.  If Russians did not understand prevention they would suffer from a population explosion.  Instead, their population is decreasing.  As stated in Bubba's post, if a woman is easy she is risky.  This is not a Russian problem it is a world problem.  The russians understand it just as well as we do.

... in response to Don't agree, posted by BubbaGump on Feb 21, 2002

It is a fantasy to beliieve Russians don't understand sex educaation. My girl certainly does, and not by my beating it into her.  If Russians did not understand prevention they would suffer from a population explosion.  Instead, their population is decreasing.  As stated in Bubba's post, if a woman is easy she is risky.  This is not a Russian problem it is a world problem.  The russians understand it just as well as we do.

... in response to Don't agree, posted by BubbaGump on Feb 21, 2002

It is a fantasy to beliieve Russians don't understand sex educaation. My girl certainly does, and not by my beating it into her.  If Russians did not understand prevention they would suffer from a population explosion.  Instead, their population is decreasing.  As stated in Bubba's post, if a woman is easy she is risky.  This is not a Russian problem it is a world problem.  The russians understand it just as well as we do.

... in response to Don't agree, posted by BubbaGump on Feb 21, 2002

I got these statistics from the NIH. I think they are from 1994 so they are old. I don't have a current web site for them.

Anal intercourse: 1 in 5 chance of transmitting HIV.
Coitus : 1 in 100 chance of transmitting HIV.

There are some other statistics concerning exposure to infected blood externally, exposure to infected semen orally, etc. but I don't remember those. Cunnilingus transmission rates are not measurable because there is no reliable data so far.

Transmission of HIV from a man to a woman with coitus is most likely from infected semem. Transmission of HIV from a woman to a man with coitus is more likely from menstrual discharge(blood), pus from sores, and blood from chafing. The  man's infection points are exposed sores, chafing wounds, and infection inside the urethra.

A condom will dramatically reduce the chances of infection from a woman to a man because normal vaginal fluids are unlikely to contain HIV. Unfortunately, a condom does not offer as high a protection to a woman because there is more likelihood of leakage of infected semem through various mishaps during coitus.

Some of this information may have changed since 1994 but most of it should be accurate.

-blm

... in response to Don't agree, posted by BubbaGump on Feb 21, 2002

I'm not sure if sex ed has really lead to more sex. People are just talking more openly about it now. When my parents were teens(late 40s and 50s) There was a lot of premarital and extramarital sex happening. The difference was people whispered about it. But the whispers never stopped anyone from doing it.

My mother has told me about those early sex ed classes. Any person who grew up around animals would know more about it than the teachers wanted to teach.

In some Canadian studies I read that the percentage of young people having premarital sex had actually gone down the last several decades. Sorry but I can't give you the exact quote on where I saw that.