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Author Topic: Progress in Colombia?  (Read 9944 times)
Jamie
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« on: January 09, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

Here are some excerpts on Colombia from the latest issue of The Economist Magazine.

Last year, over 16,000 suspected members of the country's two leftist guerrilla groups, and of its right-wing paramilitary vigilantes, either surrendered or were killed or captured. That amounts to more than half of the three irregular armies' estimated total strengths.

Colombia's overall murder rate fell to around 50 per 100,000 people in 2003—still high by international standards, but the lowest figure since 1986, according to Fundación Seguridad y Democracia (FSD), a Bogotá consultancy.

For the first time in recent years, the number of new internal refugees caused by the violence fell substantially, to 156,188.

According to new government figures, there were a mere 2,043 kidnappings in 2003, down from 2,986 in 2002.

The security forces have fought more than 2,300 battles with the irregular armies (up from 1,338 in 2002), losing 523 dead while killing 2,980.

Behind the figures lies a big security build-up, supported by American aid totalling around $2.5 billion since 2000.

President Uribe's strategy has two main elements. First, the armed forces have taken the offensive. In the second half of 2003, the army and air force did much damage to FARC units in north-western Colombia, around Bogotá and Medellín. They killed or forced the surrender of half a dozen mid-level guerrilla commanders. This has helped to blunt FARC's efforts to mount an urban bombing campaign.
Second, the government is attempting to recapture territory, and establish a presence throughout the country. A plan to expand the police was completed last month, with contingents placed in all 158 municipalities that lacked them when the president took office in August 2002—no small matter in a country more than twice the size of France. In some places, the police are being backed up by a new force of local part-time “peasant soldiers”.

Ordinary Colombians feel safer, and, partly as a result, the economy is reviving. GDP grew by an estimated 3.2% last year, the best posting since 1997. Juan Carlos Echeverry of LatinSource, a New York-based consultancy, points out that the capital flight of recent years has now been reversed, and investment and imports of capital goods are both growing.

The government has yet to hit FARC where it would hurt most: its longstanding bastions in the south and east, in departments such as Meta and Caquetá. This is where the guerrillas have their training schools, weapons factories and arms dumps, and garner some support from the local population.

Congress last month approved a new anti-terrorism law that gives the army judicial powers, of arrest and search, as well as phone-tapping. Mr Uribe insists that the powers will be temporary (the law expires in four years), will be used only against “terrorism”, and will be subject to congressional oversight.

Jamie
Engage The Exotic
International-Introductions.com

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Ricardo
Guest
« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Progress in Colombia?, posted by Jamie on Jan 9, 2004

Excerpted from  Semana (centrist newsmagazine), Bogotá, Colombia, July 7-14, 2003

http://www.worldpress.org/Americas/1326.cfm

The government’s security policy assumes that the illegally armed groups feed on the absence of central authority and that, therefore, the way to protect citizens is to guarantee the presence of strong and legitimate institutions across the whole country. “Security isn’t principally coercion; it is the permanent and effective presence of democratic authority in the territory,” says the lengthy document penned by the minister of defense with the participation of other ministries......

In this sense there is much to learn from what has happened this year in the rehabilitation zones in Arauca and Montes de María [in northern Colombia], which were created according to a similar plan. Establishing the legitimacy of the state through the presence of its institutions has proved to be the most difficult thing to accomplish: How can the state make its presence felt in the arenas of health, education, and justice if it has no money? ....

The third axis of the policy is popular participation: Stopping violence is this government’s top priority, but everyone must contribute. How? By denouncing crime, paying taxes, offering jobs to demobilized combatants, absorbing the displaced, refusing to pay ransom to kidnappers, and collaborating with the authorities.

Establishing transparency and legitimacy in Colombia’s government institutions is one of the Democratic Security Policy’s central goals. In other words, respect for human rights is its starting point and its ultimate objective. We hope that this, and every, aspect of the policy will be executed as sensibly as it was written.

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DallasSteve2
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« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Progress in Colombia?, posted by Jamie on Jan 9, 2004

The opening sentence sounds more impressive than it really is:

"Last year, over 16,000 suspected members..."

The vast majority of that number comes from much of the AUC (right wing paramilitaries) laying down its arms.  I don't have figures but I would bet the amount of guerrillas killed, captured, or defected is closer to 1,000.

I agree that the situation is improving and that Uribe is doing a good job.  But his term will end in two years and unless Colombia keeps up the pressure on the guerrillas the FARC will come back as strong as ever.  That is true because they still have access to a multi-billion dollar per year income: cocaine.

I'd wager that the FARC will not go away this century unless the US ends this drug war that it can never win.  That would put them out of business mañana.

Steve

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NW Jim
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Progress in Colombia?, posted by DallasSteve2 on Jan 9, 2004

Steve, you're right I think somebody misplaced a zero. If it was 16,000 it would have wiped out 80% of the FARC. Unlikely in one year.
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DallasSteve2
Guest
« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Re: Progress in Colombia?, posted by NW Jim on Jan 10, 2004

Jim

I'm not saying the number is wrong.  I'm saying most of that number is the AUC laying down their arms.

I don't have exact numbers obviously but this is roughly the number of combatants:

The bad guys (according to me):
FARC (left-wing)          17,500
ELN (left-wing)            3,500

The good guys:
Colombian Armed Forces    52,000
AUC (right-wing)          15,000

My numbers come from a PBS report and a CSIS report and are similar to those I've read in news reports:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/latin_america/colombia/players.html
http://www.csis.org/americas/pubs/h020125.htm

Last year the AUC agreed to disarm (not all of them did, but most of the AUC).  So most of that 16,000 comes from them.

Interesting excerpt from the CSIS report:

"As recently as 1998, FARC beat the Colombian Army in battalion-size engagements."

Steve

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roadken
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Re: Progress in Colombia?, posted by NW Jim on Jan 10, 2004

You guys are ignoring the obvious.Crime is down,the bad guys are on the run, employment is up,people are traveling more,GDP is up (3.6),last weekend they caught FARC's banker,etc.,etc.,etc.All this in 18 months.It is nothing short of miraculous.Be optimistic boys,the future is bright.
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DavidMN
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« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Progress in Colombia?, posted by roadken on Jan 10, 2004

You're right Roadken, there are several improving indicators at present. Some of the economic stats are the best in five or six years and some of the murder/violence/kidnapping figures are the best in a decade or more.

Unfortunately, until security gets a lot better, Colombia will continue to suffer a dearth of foreign investment and tourism income. And a lot of the legally created wealth will continue to go off shore.

Colombia is running out of oil, as measured by proven reserves. They've got a horrible national debt problem and it's almost all denominated in USD. Even with a slightly better economy, the debt continues to grow because of greater military expenditures.

In my view, whether they have a bright future or not hinges on improved security. That would allow for oil exploration, greater investment and tourism. Then they can start working on the debt mountain.

-David

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roadken
Guest
« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Progress in Colombia?, posted by DavidMN on Jan 11, 2004

You are correct about there debt problem.Also,unreserved pension obligations are a big problem.GDP has to rise significantly and quickly.Expect a forgiveness of debt by us in 3-5 years and maybe an IMF bailout.It is getting safer but that is a relative term.The important thing is the direction they are heading,which is up.
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DavidMN
Guest
« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Re: Progress in Colombia?, posted by roadken on Jan 11, 2004

FYI - Here's a short document in English from the Colombian embassy site. Three or four points are related to economics, the rest are security.

http://www.colombiaemb.org/download/comunicados/Colombias_Progress.doc

-David

P.S. The economic stuff is probably pretty "hard." I'm no expert but I've read that the Col. military often inflates the number of captures and kills of the bad guys.

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burbuja2
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« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Progress in Colombia?, posted by DallasSteve2 on Jan 9, 2004

[This message has been edited by burbuja2]

Great flame war in progress at the lower half of the page.  This is the war to end all wars.  Reinforcements not needed AT THIS TIME.
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DallasSteve2
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« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Yo, Steve:  URGENT, posted by burbuja2 on Jan 10, 2004

Burbuja

Thanks for the heads up.  I haven't been paging down very far.

I don't see much that I can add to the thread.  I can't argue with him about slamming women in public unless you've got really solid evidence (like my ex).  And the really sad part is I've seen BeenThere's photo and he is handsome and looks about 35 (don't believe that 29 BS).

If Homeland Security was going to rate that flame war it would be about level Yellow.

Steve

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beenthere
Guest
« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Yo, Steve:  URGENT, posted by burbuja2 on Jan 10, 2004

I agree bubbles, no re-inforcements needed yet.....you 3 guys are holding your own against me.......so far......
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burbuja2
Guest
« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Re: Yo, Steve:  URGENT, posted by beenthere on Jan 10, 2004

Yes, I think my policy of triangulation has worked quite well.  Of course, if you were able to effectively challenge my superior intellect or had a better personality, I would then be forced to assemble a coalition of the willing.  In the meantime, I'm jetting off to El Salvador to wrap up a few ends at my old business.  You know, the place where the drinks are cold and the girls are HOT.  Film at 11.
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Ricardo
Guest
« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2004, 05:00:00 AM »

... in response to Progress in Colombia?, posted by Jamie on Jan 9, 2004

Overview of Uribe strategy to rout the FARC and other anti-government insurgents.


http://www.reliefweb.int/library/documents/2003/icg-col-13nov.pdf

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