Reality not statistics

[Villa in Cali]

Lex, You talk about the danger and how everyone with money wants to leave.  You throw around stats and stories as if they are gospel.  You have the right to state your opinion this is a open forum but you are so far off from the truth that its amusing.  You obviously don't know anything about Colombia nor its people. I fly to Colombia every month. 95% of the people on the plane with me are Colombians traveling back to Colombia because this is their home.They aren't running from their country despite its problems.  Are their people looking for a way out of Colombia?  Sure,but not the amount of people one might think.  Recently a good friend of mine came to the US to visit her family here, she spent 1 month with them.  After 1 month here she was looking forward to getting back to Cali to continue her studies at the university.  She comes from a rich family also.  This is very typical everyday.  Many Colombians come to the United States for vacation but return to Colombia because this is their country and home.  In my business in Cali I deal with hundreds of Colombians on a daily basis.  Many of my customers are typical Colombian families who have a passion for life and their country.  All of my employees are good people who have no interest in leaving Colombia.  Is life in Colombia dangerous?  Yes it can be but not to the extreme you state.  I doubt the people with the stats have spent any real time in Colombia as I have.  Go out one time on a Friday night dancing,  go watch a futbol game, attend the bullfights, see a movie, or spend time in the feria and you will see the passion Colombians have for life and their country.  

Pacino

[Ted]

... in response to Reality not statistics, posted by Villa in Cali on Aug 29, 2002

I guess you don't read the classifieds while down there. There are some decent houses being sold dirt cheap. People are selling their things and getting out.

[Villa in Cali]

... in response to Re: Reality not statistics, posted by Ted on Aug 29, 2002

If you read my post I do say that there are people who are looking to move out of Colombia but there are many Colombians who want to remain in their country.  I am only giving you my opinion from my experience dealing with many Colombians from all economic classes.  

Pacino

[lex]

... in response to Reality not statistics, posted by Villa in Cali on Aug 29, 2002

They werent my facts, they are the generally accepted figures off the website...I know, the website is incorrect, the Government warnings are incorrect....everything is incorrect except that Colombia is a great place to vacation and find a woman who would rather live there then anywhere else on the planet and prefers much older men....ok, no problem....

You know, I was posting some general warnings, thats all....I was attacked for it and am just trying to defend myself against the Colombia lovers who have hegemoney here....outside opinions are really not that welcome when it comes to Colombia....I understand that, many guys have girls from there and they dont want any taint on their choices and its understandable....They dont want any doubt that the ladies are only looking for love. Never mind the taxi drivers who ask why we go there to marry their maids, or the girls themselves at the agency who sometimes admit that they just want to leave, or dont really like the older guys who hit on them....or who laugh among themselves at how clever they are at getting money and gifts from the gringos....Its all just a big paradise for the delusional souls who worship it....

I say again, go to Colombia if you want, I dont care.....I was just giving an opposing opinion, which is not welcome, and offering other ideas about more peaceful places to look where you can be more safe and where the people are not so pressured by forces out of their control.....I even said I was done when I posted that girls letter, but the hard core have to pound me for that as well.....

good luck....Im done with this subject...so be happy and continue your journeys to disneyland.

[Craig]

... in response to Re: Reality not statistics, posted by lex on Aug 29, 2002

It's amazing to me why posters on this board engage dicks like you. We all know the type.... you feed off the hatred your words seem to ignite. In my book your a catfish, a bottom feeder...good luck putz.

[JeffA]

... in response to Re: Reality not statistics, posted by lex on Aug 29, 2002

I usually try to steer clear of these sorts of threads, but I must intervene here. First, the 'warnings' presented were so general that they give the "open-minded (read person who will agree with lex)" reader no choice but to say that Colombia is in chaos, there are no social controls, yankees are on almost every Colombian's hit list, and the sicarios are waiting at immigration at El Dorado airport to kill any supposed american who enters the coutry.

Furthermore, because there was a report on 60 minutes, any Colombian with the means is leaving the country.

Additionally, the tone is such that those who don't listen are either uneducated, stupid or both.

I have to wonder about someone who has been on the board for a month who cites for evidence such works as "dangerous places" and "60 Minutes" to support his conclusions. In other words, Lex, I think you are accepting the words of these others not simply at face value, but you are transmogrifying the murder and death rates for a country into an untenable conclusion.

For example, six family members were murdered in my state last night, and a woman and baby are missing. Violent crimes occur at higher rates in the southeastern US than in other parts of the US. By  your proposition, people should be fleeing this area because it falls into the 'dangerous places' definition.

Many of us on this bulletin board have lived in Colombia, visited Colombia-- many parts of the country-- have colombian wives, have Colombian in-laws, and have had experiences entirely contrary to what you purport. To wit: marriage, parties, dancing, friendships in Cali, Bogota, Manizales, Cartagena, Barranquilla, etc.

Some of us either are examing property or already own property in Colombia for retirement or vacation purposes.

I speak only for myself here, but I don't want to take a vacation in a war zone. However, my family and I will continue to vacation in Colombia because it is NOT a war zone, no matter how much and how diligently you try to describe it as one.  

I doubt if many of us will venture purposely into FARC controlled territory, or try to walk the pipeline, or try to spend time on the poorer sections of the cities we visit or live in. Most of us are not in the habit of throwing kerosine on lit fires.

However, we will continue visit Colombia, because it is a wonderful country, with friendly citizens, and a rich cultural heritage.

Also, most of us will not stoop to constant epithets, insults, or uncivil behavior, either.

As a statistician ( yep, I'm one of them) I understand that people have difficulty of interpreting aggregate data. Remember, aggregated data are like the peanut butter you spread over a sandwich-- you spread it evenly over the surface. The murder rate for Bogota for instance includes ALL of Bogota, but does not break the city into subdistricts.

If you look at subdistricts, you'll find that murders aren't random-- there are clusters in specific geographic areas at specific times. For instance, don't go to a poorer section of Bogota on a Friday or Saturday night with your 'rich gringo' disguise on. Don't drive south of Medellin on a weekend, stay in the reputable areas, and look for where the upper-class or middle-class people congregate.

In other words, don't accept the words of others without being able to interpret their medium. And don't rant at people on this board because you don't like the way they spell. And don't inundate us with old information or anecdotal evidence such as your conversation with your novia, and expect us to accept it as the norm for a country of 44 million people!

I only hope you learn a)manners, b)how to interpret statistics, and c) that on-the-ground experience from many of us on this board who may weigh in only infrequently counts for more than ugly poor-mouthed diatribes, books that exaggerate dangers, and 20-minute episodes of television journalism.

Yes, Colombia has a civil war, and colombia can be dangerous. So can New York, Atlanta, Detroit, Los Angeles, Washington, Italy, the FRS-- there is no 'safe' place. Reports of the danger in colombia taken out of context do not reveal the nature of Colombia's violence, nor the ways to operate securely.

My 270 pesos (at today's rate)
JEff

[Hoda]

... in response to overblown generalities -long, posted by JeffA on Aug 29, 2002

Jeff,

Despite the "anti-Colombia" chest beating of some. Colombia is a beautiful country with many wonderful people. It's a shame & a crime what they've been going through for over 40 years. Your words should be required reading for all interested in visiting Colombia....

Many thanks bro....

[HappyInBrazil]

... in response to overblown generalities -long, posted by JeffA on Aug 29, 2002

n/t

[lex]

... in response to overblown generalities -long, posted by JeffA on Aug 29, 2002

Yes, I can see you are ready to jump on someone who cast shadows on Colombia and defends himself from attacks. Where are your lessons on manners to others here who frequently cross the line such as hoda, colman, and calivet just to name a few...

Its always the same on this board, dont mess with Colombia.....or be the object of riducule, mockery, and disdain....People wanted sources of my opinions, I give the sources and the sources themselves are then ridiculed and mocked...There is no way to have objective discussions because no matter what is offered, the person and his evidence are looked upon as idiots....Everyone states their own anecdotal evidence versus facts and the facts lose because it must be faulty if it is not becoming...

I tried to offer general info and warnings and was attacked....I admit to getting upset and I attacked back...It appears that some here have little stomach when the tables are turned on them, but they can dish it out wholeheartedly.....

Enjoy Colombia one and all....as for me and others on the board (who wont post their true opinions and feelings because of what will come down on them) we can go to the greener pastures...I already see guys looking at Brazil and Argentina so i know there are other thoughts on all this out there....

[JeffA]

... in response to Re: overblown generalities -long, posted by lex on Aug 29, 2002

My post today is to defend against ignorance and misinformation, not to defend Colombia.

Point 1: your sources are either out of date, written for popular consumption, or simply aren't based in observable information. your 'expert' is a writer who wants to sell books, and knows that few americans will ever travel to colombia, brazil, afghanistan, etc. Thus your 'expert' examines the dangers from a thrill-seeking perspective -- that's stated on the website, i'm not making it up.
Your expert has offered a report from 5 years ago-- ancient history in terms of world events, and in terms of what has happened within Colombia (and the other countries mentioned). I read your source, and I tried to find any evidence of the shooting you mentioned in today's edition of El Pais.  No mention of the shooting... I'll read it tomorrow, as well, to see if your friend's story is mentioned.

Point 2: Bad sources lead to bad interpretations. You seem convinced your 'sources' are infallible, and that their interpretations of the data are the only acceptible interpretations.

Pint 3: inadequate analysis. I would have to ask you to reference my previous post regarding aggregated data and its interpretation.

Point 4: You point out 'common knowledge' that is factually incorrect.

Point 5: JAMA (Journal of the American Medical Association) Vol 283, No.9, March 1 2000:http://jama.ama-assn.org/issues/v283n9/ffull/jed00006.html
Gun Carrying and Homicide Prevention  


 Lawrence W. Sherman, PhD
(I cut out only a small part-- a statement of fact. you have the website if you want to examine the rest of the editorial)
"Their study of homicide in 2 Colombian cities is focused on the times and days of the week when homicide is most likely to occur, in cities where 74% to 79% of homicides are committed with guns. The authors illustrate the influence of banning gun carrying and seizing illegally carried guns at a much higher rate during the high-homicide-risk weekend periods.

The study investigators reported that reductions in homicide are greatest when the risk of homicide is highest: on payday weekends, when the intervention reduced the standardized homicide rates by 23% in Bogotá (from 102 to 79 per 100,000 person-years) and 18% in Cali (from 170 to 139 per 100,000 person years). While these effects are relatively modest in relation to other findings, the large sample size, high homicide rates (the US homicide rate in 1998 was 6.3 per 100,000), and robustness of the data provide the strongest evaluation yet of gun-carrying restrictions on homicide rates. The findings are all the more important given the relatively modest nature of the intervention."

Note that this quote is specific in time frame and in rates.
Pay day weekends, murders using guns.

does Colombia have a high murder rate? Yes. 83 per 100,000 in population, according to the latest data I could find. Are all colombians equally at risk? even the question is absurd.

Does Compton,CA have a high murder rate? yes. in 1990, 83.43 murders per 100,000 in population. Does this mean that everyone in California shares that risk? no.

You stated that the situation in Colombia "has gotten worse." You don't explain, simply make an assertion. Opinion? More tabloid journalism?

Lex, you have not presented a compelling arguemnt, you assumptions are invalid, your support is not credible, your conclusions are not drawn from existing data, and you resort to personal attacks frequently. You say you are defending yourself as you whine that "my sources are attacked..." Well, if the sources were in any way objective or reliable or valid, they woudln't be attacked! If you didn't take on a supercilious attitude when responding, bring up fictitious (or at least nonreported in the local media) events, make opinion statements that we are supposed to accept as gospel truths, people might be willing to address your propositions.

Where's the support? it ain't in what you've shown or listed. We want FACTS, not basura.

I'm waiting.

[lex]

... in response to here we go again... long, posted by JeffA on Aug 29, 2002

Yeah well, I suppose I could be a fool and say I dont believe your sources either..Pelton is well respected and the figures on the website are accepted and so I have provided the generally accepted figure and warnings....they are considered true and factual...You want to put a spin on it and trash this source and that then go ahead.......hey dude, go to Cali and enjoy yourself....I dont care....

[Jeff S]

... in response to here we go again... long, posted by JeffA on Aug 29, 2002

... 7 of the top 25 "Safest Cities in the US" are within a 30 minute drive of Compton:

http://www.morganquitno.com/cit02safe.htm

-- Jeff S.

[HappyInBrazil]

... in response to here we go again... long, posted by JeffA on Aug 29, 2002

Supercilious - having a haughty air or manner; disdainful; acting as if others were inferior; haughty; overbearing; arrogant.

I lernt somthin tuday.  hehe

[CaliBound]

... in response to overblown generalities -long, posted by JeffA on Aug 29, 2002

Jeff, your "270 pesos" are worth their weight in gold. Thanks!

[lex]

... in response to Reality not statistics, posted by Villa in Cali on Aug 29, 2002

Ok Mr. agency owner.....I think you know the truth but you certainly wont admit to it, bad for business.....There has been a mass exodus from Colombia by the wealthy....60 minutes has done a special about it and it well know...Read up....WE know the ladies are not desperate to leave Colombia, thats why 18 year old marry 40 and 50 somethings...its just normal behavior there..lol