Colombia and civil war . . .

[yc]

Hi Guys,

Given the recent event where an ultimatum was handed down from the Colombian president to rebels, how do you think this will impact Colombia?  Some how I have the feeling that this will result in an all out civil war.

For those that have been to Colombia since the ultimatum, has there been an increase in the desperation factor?  Are a lot more people looking to get out?  Has things become more periless for Americans?

[-]

... in response to Colombia and civil war . . ., posted by yc on Jan 13, 2002

"Murder. Kidnap, fumigation, drug exports, and arms sales all remain more or less stable. "

If you are someone who considers an average 30,000 murders per year stable. He who is wise doesn't associate these facts with a statement like "oh this is just like normal violence that is in any big city, even in the US". This is totally untrue. This kind of violence does not happen anywhere in the US at this scale. If you underestimate this fact you are being very foolish.

Columbia obviously has been, for a long time now, in an "all out civil war".

We just don't hear about any of the real news from Columbia on our western news like so many other atrocities throughout the world.

[Hoda]

... in response to 30,000 murders per year is already civil..., posted by - on Jan 14, 2002

You can't even post a fake name, just an " -" !!!!! The murder rate you've mentioned while pitiful, is over a TEN TO TWELVE YEAR PERIOD!!! If you're gonna post, atleast be factual. Murder's happen here, kidnaps happen here, fumigation, DRUGS IN A BIG WAY HAPPEN HERE. Let us not forget whose the LARGEST ARMS DEALER IN THE WORLD!!! BTW, the last civil war here resulted in the number of lost lives waaaaaaaaay higher, than what has happened in Colombia, just in case you didn't know....

[Hodi]

... in response to Jeez...you're the scared one...., posted by Hoda on Jan 15, 2002

Dear Mr Hodi Hoe, you want to comment on me not posting personal info about myself and then refer to me as “the scared one”. Listen idiot why don’t you post your real name and address then? Proove to us all that you are not the hypocrite, I would like to come over and kick your ass if you are not “the scared one” that is!!

You also show your total and utter arrogance and ignorance about the murder rate and violence in Colombia which has existed in extreme numbers for over 50 years, yes that’s right, do some more study. You are really ignorant of world events. You also seem to have a hard time accepting clear facts right in front of your eyes due to your own bold faced arrogance.

http://www.humanrights.de/caravan/colombia_en.html

”The (Colombian) murder rate of 30.000 deaths per year (2001) is the highest in the world and the number of people fleeing from the violence is higher than 2 million.”

http://www.zmag.org/ZMag/articles/oct01podur.htm

Mr Hodi Hoe, your statement that this high death rate is referring to the murders within 10 years shows more of your total arrogance to accept the truth.

The 10 year murder rate would be aprox 200,000- 250,000, not the average 25,000 per year that you stated was for 10 years.

The violence most well known that happened within a 10 year period in Colombia is relating to La Violencia in Colombia when most of what we know now all began.

”From 1948 to 1958, in La Violencia in Colombia, 2 million people were driven off their lands and 200,000 killed.”

Yes that’s correct and it hasn't changed much since.

So do some basic calculation if you are capable. Since La Violencia in Colombia, the murder rate has not been that much different, varying only somewhat. So in 50 years the numbers can easily be equal to or much greater then even the entire deaths of the US civil war which was around 650,000.

You still want to keep being ignorant and arrogant Mr Hodi Hoe?

http://www.mindefensa.gov.co/derechos_humanos/informes/informe-usa-state2000.rtf

The Central Directorate of the Judicial Police announced that 25,660 murders occurred during the year (2000), compared with 24,358 murders in 1999. The press reported that on average one person was killed every 20 minutes. The police and the Prosecutor General's office have insufficient resources to investigate most killings adequately. The Superior Judicial Council estimated based on a 1997 survey that 63 percent of crimes go unreported and that 40 percent of all reported crimes go unpunished."

Some people like you Mr Hodi Hoe may not ever change, but continue in your arrogance until death, but others on this board may be interested in learning about the more rare dangers that they may face if they are not prepared to enter into such situations.

If someone here has decided to go to Colombia to seek a wife, this is fine and I wish you all the best, but don't be thinking it is just like visiting another big city in the US like Mr Hodi Hoe may want you to think.

[NW Jim]

... in response to To Mr Hodi Hoe (Hoda), the arrogant igno..., posted by Hodi on Jan 16, 2002

Poster:
Your stats are pretty much correct, and I have time to time pointed out the numbers. However, if you're good at stats you understand that the risk is not constant in all areas at all times. So far there have been no documented killings or kidnappings of gringos searching for love in Colombia.

Yeah, there was a recent kidnapping of some Hells Angel wannabe riding his rice burner?? through the countryside. I'm not making light of the possible threat, but life is a risk v reward equation every time you get out of bed.

If you have followed this board at all you know that HODA is a veteran traveller to Colombia and has even taken trips off the beaten path without problems. He uses common sense and listens to his Colombian hosts. His trip reports are in the archives.

While you've done your research, it appears that you lack the manners that Canadians are famous for in getting your point across. Making threats via the internet is pretty weak tea.

[Hoda]

... in response to To Mr Hodi Hoe (Hoda), the arrogant igno..., posted by Hodi on Jan 16, 2002


You seem to know more/care about stats on murder than love & looking in the mirror. Jeez, with all the negative info you been busting that single cell of yours on. You're probably bleeding out of your eye-balls by now...lol! Are you as much of pitbull in telling Latin woman about life & crime here in the U.S.? Have you gone down south talking that trash to a potential lifemate? Me hiding? Who posted without a name & addy? YOU DID,YOU SCHOLAR! Please, I deal with REAL DANGERS every dayyum day. Some keyboard bytch talking about kickin azz, don't mean jack! So keep that punk junk to yourself. You haven't shown who you are or given anything of any value.....

Kick my azz? I don't think so! You got to bring azz to kick azz girlfriend...knowhaimean?

[Pete E]

... in response to 30,000 murders per year is already civil..., posted by - on Jan 14, 2002

I concur with every thing you say with one exception.I would not call it an all out civil war because the government effort is far short of all out.Its more like half as--d in my opinion.Surely a country of 36,000,000  people can handle 40,000 rebels if they have the will to.
You do make an excellent point about the cost of inaction.Not only are all of those people getting killed but so is Colombia's economy.

Pete

[kevinsnurb]

... in response to Colombia and civil war . . ., posted by yc on Jan 13, 2002

I just saw “A Beautiful Mind”, a movie about, John Nash,   a mad mathematician  whose work with “Game Theory” led to a Nobel prize in Economics and helped bring about significant  changes in political and military tactics, among other things. Below are biographical excerpts:

-------

In 1949, while studying for his doctorate, he wrote a paper which 45 years later was to win a Nobel prize for economics. During this period Nash established the mathematical principles of game theory. P Ordeshook wrote:-
The concept of a Nash equilibrium n-tuple is perhaps the most important idea in noncooperative game theory. ... Whether we are analysing candidates' election strategies, the causes of war, agenda manipulation in legislatures, or the actions of interest groups, predictions about events reduce to a search for and description of equilibria. Put simply, equilibrium strategies are the things that we predict about people.

In 1950 Nash received his doctorate from Princeton with a thesis entitled Non-cooperative Games. In the summer of that year he worked for the RAND Corporation where his work on game theory made him a leading expert on the Cold War conflict which dominated RAND's work. He worked there from time to time over the next few years as the Corporation tried to apply game theory to military and diplomatic strategy

---------

The word that stands out is “equilibrium”

The political and economic situation in Colombia is maintained in a state of equilibrium. Despite the rhetoric, nothing has really changed for the better or worse in the last 5 or 6 years. Murder. Kidnap, fumigation,  drug exports, and arms sales all remain more or less stable. If the Farc gains a little ground, the Paras suddenly become more active.

At home, the coke keeps pouring in. The prices stay high and  the jails stay full. All is well.

KS

[Pete E]

... in response to Colombia and civil war . . ., posted by yc on Jan 13, 2002

First,don't believe any ultimatums by Pastrana.He has done nothing in the past and is not likely to do much now.A post down below (not this thread)says that one of Pastrana's aids explained that the 48 ultimatum period would begin when the FARC agreed it would begin.Even if he took an area he would probably just negotiate to give it back.He is out of office in a few months anyway.Hopefully someone with some guts and determination will succeed him.A Colombian friend said a former associate of ex president Samper is likely to win and he has vowed to get rid of the rebels.
Civil war might be putting it a little strongly.There are maybe 40,000 max rebels in a country of 36,000,000 people.They have moved from a political cause to making crime a business.Colombia has the ability to wipe them out easily.Actually if the government started that process the rebel numbers would probably drop quickly once they knew someone was actually going to do something about them.I would think of it more as a large criminal roundup.Appeasers like Pastrana(ala Neville Chamberlin)hope to have a popular and bloodless solution.Only when Colombia realizes that will not work,has not worked are they likely to face the problem.I found not one FARC or ELN sympathiser in Colombia.Everyone I talked to thinks either the government,or Carlos Castana(counterevolutionary leader)should eliminate them.
The problem is not facing the issue.The rebels plus the street criminals are having a huge adverse effect on the country.
I think Colombia is ready for a change.The loss of life will probably alot less than has occured over the years by trying to avoid the issue.Colombia can not start to have a strong economy untill they cure this problem.For sure they have lots of others.Corruption and bribery are huge.
There are new political parties starting up that want to clean up goverenment corruption.A good friend of my wifes family is involved with starting a new political organization started by their church called MIRA.Thier slogun translates something like "politicians should serve the people,not themselves".This man is running for the Comera?,a political body in the state of Valle(Cali area).They also have a woman running for the Colombian Senate who I'm told is way ahead in the polls.
Things are changing.The majority of the populations in areas controlled by the rebels would welcome someone getting rid of them.My guess is the situation will be alot better by time the new president leaves office.
Goodby Pastrana,goodby Bill Clinton,hello facing issues.

Pete

[NW Jim]

... in response to Re: Colombia and civil war . . ., posted by Pete E on Jan 13, 2002

Pete,
I'm not disagreeing with your diagnosis, but I think its a situation that is a little more difficult to solve than some think.

The 40,000 figure probably includes all guerilla combatants and their unarmed sympathizers. The US has a population @ 7 times the population of Colombia, that would mean an equivalent of 280,000 anti-government nuts in this country. That ain't small.

If the FARC has been buying and stockpiling weapons during this period of "negotiations" their firepower may be rather formidable. They may be forced to switch to more of an urban warfare/terrosism approach. Course I don't know that they spent all their money on weapons--maybe they spent it  on wine and women.

Let's be careful about lionizing Castana, et al. Those who get rid of "problems" with guns & chainsaws (think mafia) usually want more power & money for themselves afterwards.

Finally, as in the US, when you see the upper class in Colombia sending their sons into the army--then you'll know they're serious. Why should the average Colombian send their kid to the army for the benefit of the rich, who are unwilling to take some of the risk?

[colman]

... in response to Re: Re: Colombia and civil war . . . a l..., posted by NW Jim on Jan 14, 2002

280,000--wow that is indeed not a small number.  First of all civil war/drug problem is a huge problem that has been eating the Colombian people. This large problem has broken families, it has cause death and destruction but my friend remember that the good ol' UNITED STATES OF AMERICA has also an ugly face(history). Listen my friend I was born here just like you so PlEASE--if you respond back, dont tell me I dont know what I am talking about. a few years before I was born--this countty lived in in APARTHEID.  GOD oh GOD I wish I can give the numbers the United States government has published about the broken families, death and destruction caused by legal apartheid in this country. Is there racism in Colombia--hell yeah--as sure as 4 quarters will get you a dollar bill--was, is there lynchings, church burnings, rapes, caused by the color of one's skin--um would you bet Detroit would win the Super Bowl this year? Klu Klux Klan--an ANTI-GOVERNMENT organisation at its height about 5-6 million strong(approximately 1955-1963) and not to mention the countless sympathizers. So if you divide 6 million by 280,000 that is about 23x. Today, using my quarter century of life as testament, I feel it has improved---but a long way from tolerable.  So my friend, this is one example of many for instance when the media reports on Colombia its always negative(sale, sale, sale those newspapers)--But how come they never talk about Dr.Pattarroyo, a Colombian doctor whom invented a cure for malaria. His simple wish is to donate this vaccine for the world--well buddy guess who said no--thats right good old United Stated government.  Why? Well you know it wanted to patent it and sale and profit from it. Hungry for another example--okay--here--The U.S. is the biggest contributer for foreign aid--foreign aid my butt--this is just euphimism for investment$$$$$$$$---Hey Venezuela Hi--my name is uncle sam--yes since you dont have the manchinery or tech. to extract that precious oil--we will do it for you--there just one catch(always read the fine print lol) for every 100 barrels of oil--one for you and 99 for us --Yeah--everybody happy!--I know your right it takes 2 to tango--and obviously Venezuela government does not have to submit to this--but you know those "puppet" leaders in the Latin American governments--guess who sponsers them???--So Mr.NW Jim--I am a very proud American like I am sure you are, and I will be the first to admit I cant see myself living away from the U.S.But remember that the truth is always out there--its just up to the individual to obtain it--So B4 u point finger do me a favor--lok in the mirror!---Colman

[pack]

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Colombia and civil war . . ...., posted by colman on Jan 15, 2002

please!

[NW Jim]

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Colombia and civil war . . ...., posted by colman on Jan 15, 2002

Colman,
My point was to put the numbers in perspective. Some folks seem to think there are easy answers and quick solutions to a 30 year old civil war.  

You're certainly right that there have been lots of deadlier wars, revolutions and genocides in history. Sometimes the killing ends suddenly, like the collapse of the Sendero Luminoso in Peru with the capture of Abimael Guzman. Who can predict the future?  

Good luck in your search.

[Colonialjd]

... in response to Colombia and civil war . . ., posted by yc on Jan 13, 2002

Sorry -- be forewarned - boring politican rant to follow.

The Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) and the Tupac Amaru really cranked up the misery index in Peru back in the 70's and 80's.  They would regularly explode car bombs throughout the key business districts of Lima and other cities.  Their plan was to destabilize the economy, cause chaos, and impose communism.  Their plan failed however.  The citizens of Peru elected Fujimori to "do the dirtywork" required to get rid of them.

An interesting hangover from these days is the 20 yr. prison sentence being served by American -- Lori Berenson --found guilty of collaberating with the rebels.

FARC & EZLN soldiers could trade in their camouflage for dockers with the intention of exploding carbombs in Cali's business district.  The FARC and EZLN are no longer motivated by politics however.  They are motivated by both money and power.  A bombing campaign would further alienate the citizens of Colombia resulting in a Fujimori type candidate.  Other complications include a republican president in the U.S. who has declared war on terrorism world wide.  

It will be really interesting to see how the FARC reacts if the Army goes after them.  That said -- the Army has been weakened by the removal of effective officers during the Clinton Administration.  Various "Human Rights" Groups would accuse certain officers of the massacre of innocent civilians.  Curiously these officers were always the most competant and effective against the FARC.  Some suspected the Human Rights watchers of FARC sympathies and/or anti-army bias.  

The FARC really does not want all out war.  It would interfere with their position within the drug industry.  The government know this and is beginning to push push them a little bit.  Additionally the FARC has to worry about Carlos Castano.  The FARC in the past would kidnap the relatives and kill the relatives of government officials/ politicians.  Castano is equally ruthless with the FARC.  No FARC commander can feel safe that his mother, brother, cousin, won't be killed by Castano.  Castano's father was killed by the rebels -- now he uses their own tactics against them.

The FARC wants the drug $$$.  The army wants to stay alive.  The Human rights people/NGO's want $$$ from the U.N., the Swedish Govt., the United Nations, & Euro Lefties.  Carlos Castano wants to kill the FARC.  The druggies want their blow.  

The Colombian people are well aware that life ain't fair.

Sorry for the rant.

[Panama Jack]

... in response to sorry, non-chica politics, posted by Colonialjd on Jan 13, 2002

Great Post Colonialjd. It's refreshing to hear the voice of someone with at least a realistic interpretation of what is happening in Colombia. I think that Anonymous and his anger towards Hoda is somewhat justified given the generous amount of right-wing Rambo jibberish that appears on the board regarding Colombia's 50-year civil war.

One thing that bothers me when discussing Latin American history/politics in general is how few people know what has happened in these countries. Added to this is the complete ignorance is the lack of knowledge regarding the role the US government has played in manipulating and controlling the outcomes of these historical internal conflicts.

For instance many Americans can't even begin to understand how over the last 40 years Colombian union workers have not only been fighting for their rights as workers but for their lives. I never hear anyone mention that in the 1980's that the FARC and ELN were asked to lay down their arms and participate in a new Colombian democracy. When they came to meet together with the Colombian oligarchy to discuss this shared participation, the rebel groups were kindly greeted with slaughter and treachery. Oh yes, much is at stake in this beautiful country called Colombia. It really strikes me as arrogant when I listen to Americans on this board talk about how Castano, the Colombian Army or even the US should just go in and wipe out the rebels. I will be the first to admit that the methods and avenues used by the FARC to fund their counterinsurgency have highly discredited their cause. On the other hand it would be very important to remember that the very core goal of the Colombian civil war has been to bring Democracy to a country that has experienced a violent and corrupt history (worse than Mexico).

It really makes me laugh how our previous American Presidents (Reagan, Bush and to some degrae Clinton) have  praised leaders of many Latin American countries on their devotion to "Democracy" when the goals of many of these leaders has been to crush any reforms, movements or organizations that would help Latin America to move towards real "Democracy". The fact of the matter is that the Pentagon would rather see Latin America ruled by the Aristocracy with a more dictatorial (junta if you prefer) approach. Democracy is exactly what the US Military-Industrial complex and the Latin American upper class do not want.

So, my friends. Lets keep one thing in mind when we talk about Latin American history/politics or are enjoying one of the best riches of Latin America (it's women):

That in the in the United States we are able to enjoy an economic/political freedom unlike any country in the world. A freedom that has been paid for with the blood of Patriots who were determined to rid themselves of the tyranny of a colonial empire.