The Problem WIth Statistics

[MarkInTx]

The discussion below about how "virtually any woman who is sexually active in Russia has had an abortion" is troubling.

Not because of the statistics about Abortion -- which is troubling enough -- but that we as a society seem to put way too much faith in polls and statistics.

I see this all of the time.

In football: "The (Insert Team Name) are 9-0 when handing the running back the ball more than 25 times."

False Conclusion: Hand the running back the ball 25 times and you will win -- no matter what.

Reality: the fact that the running back gets the ball 25 times is usually indicative that the game is already won, and the team is simply trying to eat up the clock. In other words, the victory gets the ball to the running back 25 times, not vice versa.

In Cars: Statistcally, red cars are in more accidents than any other color car.

False Conclusion: If you don't buy a red car, you will stand a better chance of avoiding an accident

Reality: It is the personality type of the driver who WANTS a red car that indicates probablility of an accident -- not the car color.

In Sex Life: Breast implants, particularly silicone gel-filled implants, have been hypothesized to predispose women to several types of illness, including connective tissue disease, rheumatic complaints and cancer.

Conclusion: A woman without breast implants will live a much healthier life.

Reality: Although this is probably true, is it really the "fault" of the implants? A recent study found that women WITH breast implants were:

  *  three times more likely to drink seven or more alcoholic drinks per week.
  * more than 1.5 times as likely to be pregnant before age 20.
  * twice as likely to have at least one terminated pregnancy.
  * more than twice as likely to have ever used oral contraceptives.
  * about 4.5 times more likely to have ever used hair dyes.
  * nearly nine times as likely to have had at least 14 sexual partners.

All of these have been clinicly proven to be health risk factors, when, in fact, breast implants have never proven to be harmful in a scientific study.

So, that brings us back to:

There is an extremely high rate of abortions amongst Russian Women.

Is the conclusion that we should draw that if you are dating a Russian Woman, you are dating a woman has had an abortion?

As tempting as it is to simply take the number of abortions and divide it amongst the population... that doesn't take into account the fact that a woman who has had ONE abortion is much more likely to have had MUILTIPLE abortions. When some women are responsible for 8, 10, or even twenty abortions, it changes the "averages."

Also, simply dividing the abortion rate by the population does not take into account the influence of family, religion, and education.

So... as it was said once before:

There are three kinds of lies:

Lies,
Damm Lies,
and Statistics...

[BURKE89]

... in response to The Problem WIth Statistics, posted by MarkInTx on Oct 15, 2002

Where did the implant stats come from?

Without getting graphic... I hate everything, well almost, everything about those things.

Now, if only these stats were tied to personality types and other intangibles... we might have a study! LOL

Vaughn

[MarkInTx]

... in response to Damned sharp post!, posted by BURKE89 on Oct 15, 2002

I got them from a book that was given to me by an ex-girlfriend.

She had implants.

Little trivia fact: The first implants were done in Texas. We are still #3 on the "most bust augmentations performed in the country" list. (Behind California, of course... bet you can't guess which state is #2...)

Anyway, we talked about them. I feel bad for women who have them.. because they know that they will have to talk about them eventually.

She was a really sexy Asian -- Half Thai, Half Caucasion. And, they were... frankly... too large on her. She looked fantastic in clothes. I mean, she made any outfit look great.

But she looked like a Barbie doll out of them. I saw pictures of her once before she had them done, and I'll never understand why she had them. She looked great without them.

Anyway... she was in the medical field so she read up on them. She was very defensive about them (even though I never said a word about them...) And she asked me to read it. So I did.

I went to the web to find the stats before I wrote my post though. I found it with a Google search. If you are really curious, I can look through my history file and find it again.

My take on the Artificial Breast has changed a bit since I got older.

I know that women feel an incredible amount of pressure. Especially in an area like Dallas. And you take a woman who is 33 years old -- just hitting her prime sexually -- and for my money a woman in her thirties is at her most beautiful... and if she has nursed a couple of kids... her breasts show it.

So she wants to restore them to what they were. Is that so bad?

Think about it. If someone were burned and scarred... but Plastic surgery could restore their face to what it was... is that wrong? If a woman had breast cancer, and had to have one breast removed... would it be wrong to have it restored by using an implant?

If no... how is that different from a woman who has had the "life trauma" of having a baby?

I would NEVER ASK a woman to do it. But if she wanted to, I understand it now.

I didn't when I was twenty of course! Time changes you sometimes...

[BURKE89]

... in response to Funny you should ask..., posted by MarkInTx on Oct 15, 2002

This topic cracks me up... I certainly wasn't questioning: "life trauma", burn victims or cancer here! Golly... you make it sound like I would, if I could, prohibit quite a few procedures there.

I'm simply, not very keen on "them." I had an ex-fiance, who took out a personal loan on "hers." Talk about, a womans priorities being out of whack... IMHO, they're Frankensteinesque and resemble pool toys more than a womans natural beauty.

Ever since then I've made a conscious effort to avoid "them", albeit without much success. They're everywhere and "their" owners, can be very adept at denying "their" existence. (smile)

Hell, my mom even has "them."

Oh, the humanity...    

[MarkInTx]

... in response to Burn victims & pool toys!, posted by BURKE89 on Oct 16, 2002

OK... geez... thanks for the image of your mom with big boobs... Thank GOD I've never met her...

My point with the burn victim or cancer victim was that it is simply reconstructive surgery... and in the case of a woman post child-rearing... it is STILL just reconstructive surgery.

So, I don't have a problem with them anymore.

I used to.

I view them (in the case of a woman who got them following breast-feeding her kids) the same way I view a man taking Viagra... even though he doesn't really 'need' it.

Some guys will take Viagra as a boost. Not because they can't have sex without it... but because sex is better with it.

Well... the symbol of a man's virility is easily fixed with a little blue pill.

For some women, the symbol of their femininity is not so easily fixed, and requires some surgery.

So... I have learned to accept it. And it is good knowing that if you are ever in the pool together, yuo have a ready flotation device ;-)

(Oh... BTW... before the innuendos start flying... my fiance doesn't have them. But it wouldn't bother me if she did...)

[BURKE89]

... in response to Funny you should ask..., posted by MarkInTx on Oct 15, 2002

It sure couldn't be, the good folks in up-state N.Y.! I've got questions, however, on the Dow-Silicone thang'& perhaps a G.E. angle to boot. Sleep calls... now.

Windshield time...

Vaughn

[MarkInTx]

... in response to Could it be...............New York (city..., posted by BURKE89 on Oct 16, 2002

It's Florida, believe it or not.

Thinking of all of those retired citizens getting boob jobs is alarming!

But apparently the thinking is that it is the girls of Miami that drive the number up...

[Quasimoto]

... in response to The Problem WIth Statistics, posted by MarkInTx on Oct 15, 2002

I hate the banal sport of football, but I must say, I think the post is outstanding, relevant, and very true.

Steve

[Stevo]

... in response to The Problem WIth Statistics, posted by MarkInTx on Oct 15, 2002

[This message has been edited by Stevo]

Since you used my statement as an example for your statistics post, I will say that I didn't make this statement based on any statistical data such as that posted later on (the 235 abortions/100 births).

I simply asked my wife if any of the women she knew as friends had NOT had an abortion in their lifetime.  The answer was no, not a one.  Obviously this is anecdotal, but if the same question was asked of AW, I'm sure the answer would be very different.  It wasn't a scientific poll, but it convinced me that abortions are common in the extreme.

And what was most distressing was the sheer numbers of abortions per woman quoted for her friends (I was simply amazed).

Based on that, I stand by my original statement that virtually all (but NOT all) women in Russia have had at least one abortion.  It took my wife almost 2 years before she finally admitted that she had one, so you can be sure that many women will not tell you the truth until you are well and truly married to them so that you can't drop them (who knows what the hell RW are thinking!).

BTW, my wife claims that RW are conditioned from a young age to not tell their husbands anything...husbands aren't to be trusted.  So it takes a LOT of work to get them to open up to you and tell you what the truth really is.  The truth tends to come out in dribs and drabs.  Keep this in mind at all times!

Stevo

[MarkInTx]

... in response to Re: The Problem WIth Statistics, posted by Stevo on Oct 15, 2002

Well... Not trying to belabor a point.

The fact that your wife didn't know of one friend who hadn't had an abortion is alarming, I'll grant you.

Still seems to me to be a rather small sampling to make such a broad statement as "Almost ALL Russian women have had an abortion..."

I mean, that's a pretty broad brush, you have to agree...

[Stevo]

... in response to Re: Re: The Problem WIth Statistics, posted by MarkInTx on Oct 15, 2002

that my statement is pretty broad based on the limited 'sample' of women that my wife knows.  But these are all types of women...married w/children, divorced, single. And of all ages...25 to 55.  I think they represent a decent crossection of FSU women (from small villages to large cities).  If she had said that even a couple of women she knew had never had an abortion, then I'd say the action wasn't as prevalent.  But facts are facts.

The only point to my original post was to reply to Frank O that abortions were the most common form of contraception, not preventive methods as posted by Dan (which was misleading to poor Frank who couldn't understand why a potential girlfriend didn't understand what he was talking about when he mentioned birth control to her).

Of course, Dan has his own rosy view of the FSU.  It seems that number of trips and knowledge of the situation do not go hand-in-hand.  But everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

[MarkInTx]

... in response to Generally, I would agree, posted by Stevo on Oct 15, 2002

I think we both said all we can say on this... huh?

FWIW, I didn't find your post inflammatory... I just wanted to clarify...

[Dan]

... in response to Generally, I would agree, posted by Stevo on Oct 15, 2002

And others might say that it's realistic. A few might even consider me a cynic - though probably not many.

I attribute our differences (yours and mine Stevo) to the different company we each keep.

- Dan

[Stevo]

... in response to Yep - Some Might Call My View "Rosy..., posted by Dan on Oct 15, 2002

ggg

[Dan]

... in response to Take all the shots you want...n/t, posted by Stevo on Oct 15, 2002

n/t