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Offline Elexpatriado

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Re: Corona
« Reply #125 on: June 27, 2020, 08:07:00 AM »
http://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/colombia-marks-grim-mortality-record-as-nation-prepares-for-further-economic-reopening/25518


Cases  and deaths increasing everywhere in Colombia.


Including Antioquia , with over 3600 cases.


Sure , may not seem like a lot now, but increasing exponentially


And like Wayne Gretzky says- dont look where the puck is now-look where it is going..

Offline robert angel

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Re: Corona
« Reply #126 on: June 27, 2020, 08:31:32 AM »
People think that when a vaccine is developed,  this will all go away. But as viruses do, this monster can mutate and make the vaccine worthless.
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Offline Calipro

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Re: Corona
« Reply #127 on: June 27, 2020, 10:23:26 AM »
http://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/colombia-marks-grim-mortality-record-as-nation-prepares-for-further-economic-reopening/25518


Cases  and deaths increasing everywhere in Colombia.


Including Antioquia , with over 3600 cases.


Sure , may not seem like a lot now, but increasing exponentially


And like Wayne Gretzky says- dont look where the puck is now-look where it is going..

Antioquía might have 3600 corona virus cases total but Arizona has almost that in new cases per day. My mom isn't in good health and she still lives there.

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Re: Corona
« Reply #127 on: June 27, 2020, 10:23:26 AM »

Offline Elexpatriado

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Re: Corona
« Reply #128 on: June 27, 2020, 11:11:27 AM »
Antioquía might have 3600 corona virus cases total but Arizona has almost that in new cases per day. My mom isn't in good health and she still lives there.


I hope she stays healthy Cali. I hope and pray things finaly start to improve everywhere.


This is getting a bit old..

Offline robert angel

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Re: Corona
« Reply #129 on: July 01, 2020, 08:08:56 AM »
As we approach the end of the first half of 2020, they're already canceling events scheduled for 2021, Cities that released quarantine restrictions are renewing them.


Even if they get a vaccine --hopefully around 2021, the virus can mutate.


Yes we've had weird viruses, influenza, the black plague, etc., but this is uncharted territory.


In over 120 days,  I haven't been away from my wife except or a one hour Dr's appt. This is very weird.
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Offline Elexpatriado

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Re: Corona
« Reply #130 on: July 01, 2020, 11:20:34 AM »
As we approach the end of the first half of 2020, they're already canceling events scheduled for 2021, Cities that released quarantine restrictions are renewing them.


Even if they get a vaccine --hopefully around 2021, the virus can mutate.


Yes we've had weird viruses, influenza, the black plague, etc., but this is uncharted territory.


In over 120 days,  I haven't been away from my wife except or a one hour Dr's appt. This is very weird.


Dont worry. It is gonna be OK. Dont believe everything the MSN puts out.

Offline robert angel

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Re: Corona
« Reply #131 on: July 01, 2020, 03:23:44 PM »

Dont worry. It is gonna be OK. Dont believe everything the MSN puts out.


Thanks. I'm living the life of riley with a beautiful young woman who cooks the greatest variety of foods I've ever had. She lets me be inordinately lazy, all the while trying to convince me I'm the greatest. What more could a guy ask for?


I guess I feel like travel time and opportunities to get out and have fun--more precisely the days, minutes hours and months--the better part of a year of our lives--has been somehow taken away.
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Offline Elexpatriado

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Offline robert angel

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Re: Corona
« Reply #133 on: July 04, 2020, 09:33:21 PM »
https://colombiareports.com/medellin-announces-curfews-amid-fears-covid-19-could-collapse-colombias-2nd-largest-city/

Hasn't the key to success in Medellin been giving up your cellphone info, including location access so that they know who's who and everywhere who and you have been, are and are going?

The people in the USA just aren't ready  to give it up, but I bet big brother already has most of that info already, but like they watch where we go online, they're not telling....
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Offline Elexpatriado

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Re: Corona
« Reply #134 on: July 05, 2020, 10:53:25 AM »
Hasn't the key to success in Medellin been giving up your cellphone info, including location access so that they know who's who and everywhere who and you have been, are and are going?

The people in the USA just aren't ready  to give it up, but I bet big brother already has most of that info already, but like they watch where we go online, they're not telling....


Obviously never rewad the article...and look at the  graph.


There is no more "sucsess" in Medellin or anywhere else in Colombia than any other place.


All the strict lock down did is delay the inevetible.

Offline robert angel

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Re: Corona
« Reply #135 on: July 05, 2020, 08:49:12 PM »

Obviously never rewad the article...and look at the  graph.


There is no more "sucsess" in Medellin or anywhere else in Colombia than any other place.


All the strict lock down did is delay the inevetible.

Anyway you look at it, with Antioquía having ⁴close to seven million people, the amount of cases and deaths has been amazingly low.

Even if they were missing half the cases and the perhaps inevitable upsurge curving upward, they clearly were doing something Brazil wasn't.

Was it cellphones and people tracking?

I want to know what technology and surveillance amongst other things, had to do with that.
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Offline Calipro

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Re: Corona
« Reply #136 on: July 06, 2020, 02:31:46 PM »
Anyway you look at it, with Antioquía having ⁴close to seven million people, the amount of cases and deaths has been amazingly low.

Even if they were missing half the cases and the perhaps inevitable upsurge curving upward, they clearly were doing something Brazil wasn't.

Was it cellphones and people tracking?

I want to know what technology and surveillance amongst other things, had to do with that.

 One of the biggest risk factors for getting sick from covid19 is age and on average Colombians are about 10 years younger than the average American.

Also there is evidence that people with type O blood do not contract covid 19 as easily as other blood types and type O blood is the predominant blood type in Colombia

Add the stricter quarantin measures compared to the USA and you get a much slower infection rate.

But even with all that.... the Mayor of Medellin predicts that a majority of Medellin residents will eventually contract covid19

There is no stopping this virus anywhere
The game plan is simply keep the infection rate in check as to not overwhelm hospitals and wait for heard immunity or a vaccine.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2020, 02:35:09 PM by Calipro »

Offline robert angel

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Re: Corona
« Reply #137 on: July 06, 2020, 05:12:24 PM »
One of the biggest risk factors for getting sick from covid19 is age and on average Colombians are about 10 years younger than the average American.

Also there is evidence that people with type O blood do not contract covid 19 as easily as other blood types and type O blood is the predominant blood type in Colombia

Add the stricter quarantin measures compared to the USA and you get a much slower infection rate.

But even with all that.... the Mayor of Medellin predicts that a majority of Medellin residents will eventually contract covid19

There is no stopping this virus anywhere
The game plan is simply keep the infection rate in check as to not overwhelm hospitals and wait for heard immunity or a vaccine.


Could you send a link please? All the google chrome hits here are for articles from back in June--lame--AND they make Quintero out to be some kind of genius. IF he is AND if he says things along the lines of:


"""[size=78%]But even with all that.... the Mayor of Medellin predicts that a majority of Medellin residents will eventually contract covid19"""[/size]
[/size]
[/size][size=78%]Well, going on about a 130 days in quarantine, it doesn't exactly make my day....[/size]
[/size]
[/size][size=78%]So much misinfo, filtered and fed BS on the net in the USA....[/size]
Whether you think you can or think you can't--you're right!

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Re: Corona
« Reply #137 on: July 06, 2020, 05:12:24 PM »

Offline robert angel

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Re: Corona
« Reply #138 on: July 06, 2020, 05:33:05 PM »

Could you send a link please? All the google chrome hits here are for articles from back in June--lame--AND they make Quintero out to be some kind of genius. IF he is AND if he says things along the lines of:


"""[size=78%]But even with all that.... the Mayor of Medellin predicts that a majority of Medellin residents will eventually contract covid19"""[/size]

[size=78%]Well, going on about a 130 days in quarantine, it doesn't exactly make my day....[/size]

[size=78%]So much misinfo, filtered and fed BS on the net in the USA....[/size]


After rewording and digging a bit, found this (supposedly) from July 3rd:


https://www.medellinherald.com/antioquia/mmn


It, like just about everything, praises the "Marvelous Mayor Quintero" and how he has kept 2.5 million Medellin's death rate down to an unbelievably low 15.


And this is the same guy who says most people that a majority of Medellin will eventually contract covid regardless? Maybe he's just trying to scare the sh!t out of people.....
Whether you think you can or think you can't--you're right!

Offline robert angel

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Re: Corona
« Reply #139 on: July 07, 2020, 10:30:04 AM »
So now: "The Brazillian Trump"--Jain Bolsonaro has covid-19, it's an irony that even fools share....
Whether you think you can or think you can't--you're right!

Offline Calipro

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Re: Corona
« Reply #140 on: July 07, 2020, 08:58:29 PM »

After rewording and digging a bit, found this (supposedly) from July 3rd:


https://www.medellinherald.com/antioquia/mmn


It, like just about everything, praises the "Marvelous Mayor Quintero" and how he has kept 2.5 million Medellin's death rate down to an unbelievably low 15.


And this is the same guy who says most people that a majority of Medellin will eventually contract covid regardless? Maybe he's just trying to scare the sh!t out of people.....

Unless you just start arresting people that leave their homes like in China ....there really is no realistic way to stop the virus ....other than herd  immunity when about 70 percent of a population has had the virus or a vaccine when a majority of people have been inoculated.

I mean once there are so many cases of the disease that you can't do contact tracking ....just how are you to stop a virus. Masks just slow it down ....but they are never going to stop it.

Offline benjio

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Re: Corona
« Reply #141 on: July 08, 2020, 06:33:18 AM »
Unless you just start arresting people that leave their homes like in China ....there really is no realistic way to stop the virus ....other than herd  immunity when about 70 percent of a population has had the virus or a vaccine when a majority of people have been inoculated.

I mean once there are so many cases of the disease that you can't do contact tracking ....just how are you to stop a virus. Masks just slow it down ....but they are never going to stop it.

I tend to agree. All this quarantining, mask wearing and social distancing is an exercise in futility. At some point we’re going to have to be forced to suffer the consequences of letting this thing play out.

Offline Calipro

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Re: Corona
« Reply #142 on: July 08, 2020, 09:01:27 AM »
I tend to agree. All this quarantining, mask wearing and social distancing is an exercise in futility. At some point we’re going to have to be forced to suffer the consequences of letting this thing play out.

The only reason people are wearing masks is to slow down the spread so hospitals don't get over run with patients. And of course to hope that you are last 25 percent that never contracts the disease due to herd immunity.

Offline Elexpatriado

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Re: Corona
« Reply #143 on: July 08, 2020, 01:18:35 PM »
Actually , a lot of countries, like Japan, Korea, Switzerland and Austria..have got the cases so low and are now restarting the economy , some after an initial quarantine, but all with the people and culture disciplined and responsible  enough to undertake social distancing, mask wearing and hand-washing / general sanitation. Plus the medical systems in these countries are competent and empowered enough in undertaking of  TTIT- Testing, tracing the infected, isolating and quarantining the infected, Treatment-sufficient ICUs, drug treatment, ventilators and well trained medical staff.


None of these countries came anywhere near "Herd Imunity",


Even in the Major European countries where the virus initially hit very hard, things are now under control. The worst case of the major European Countries is Belguim, the case rate total is 6000 per million. or 0.6% of the population (now almost fully recovered). Even if you take the most conservative estimate saying 20 times as many people have it as have actually tested positive, you only get 12% of population infected.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


So yes , you can control the virus if people are disciplined, employ social distancing, face masks where you cant avoid people, hygeine, and where the medical system sucsessfully employs TTIT..


The problem is in colombia, and other Latin Countries, the discipline and sense of social responsibility is not there (or at least worn out after months of quarantine), and the medical system is under-staffed, under equipped and corrupt.


The worst case is the coast. You think these people are responsible, disciplined or have common sense?


https://www.hoydiariodelmagdalena.com.co/archivos/387565

As far as protecting the old people , Colombia does have the advantage of having younger people. You would think they would have a disadvantage of most of the older people  living with the extended family, but after the disaster  countries like Canada allowed  with the EXtended care facilities, I somehow doubt it.




« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 01:36:05 PM by Elexpatriado »

Offline Elexpatriado

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Re: Corona
« Reply #144 on: July 08, 2020, 01:22:24 PM »
https://www.as-coa.org/articles/where-coronavirus-latin-america#colombia

With Colombia pushing 1000 confirmed cases as of a few days ago (one can only wonder how many untested 'carriers' are running around) it appears the "long way" to get to where the USA is, isn't that far off.

Brazil is getting bad and even in remote areas, including islands in that region, its showing and growing.

Meanwhile 8 million population Bogata is looking at a THREE month shutdown....


You are looking at very ancient news. For the last week its been betwen 3000 and 4200 new cases every day.


See this site for the latest info. on all countries


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


and specifically Colombia


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/colombia/




Offline robert angel

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Re: Corona
« Reply #145 on: July 08, 2020, 01:29:07 PM »
Actually , a lot of countries, like Japan, Kprea, Switzerland and Austria..have got the cases so low , some after an initial quarantine, but all with the people and culture disciplined and responsible  enough to undertake social distancing, mask wearing and hand-washing / general sanitation. Plus the medical systems in these countries are competent and empowered enough in undertaking of  TTIT- Testing, tracing the infected, isolating and quarantining the infected, Treatment-sufficient ICUs, drug treatment, ventilators and well trained medical staff.


None of these countries came anywhere near "Herd Imunity",


Even in the Major European countries where the virus iitially hit very hard, things are now under control. The worst case of the major European Countries is Belguim, the case rate total is 6000 per million. or 0.6% of the population. Even if you take the most conservative estimate saying 20 times as many people have it as have actually tested positive, you only get 12% of population infected.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


So yes , you can control the virus if people are disciplined, employ social distancing, face masks where you cant avoid people, hygeine, and where the medical system sucsessfully employs TTIT..


The problem is in colombia, and other Latin Countries, the discipline and sense of social responsibility is not there (or atleast worn out after months of quarantine), and the medical system is under-staffed, under equipped and corrupt.


The worst case is the coast. You think these people are responsible, disciplined or have common sense?


https://www.hoydiariodelmagdalena.com.co/archivos/388119

As far as protecting the old people , Colombia does have the advantage of having younger people. You would think they would have a disadvantage of most of them living with the extended family, but after the disaster  countries like Canada allowed  with the EXtended care facilities, I somehow doubt it.


Excellent post. At best the introduction of an effective vaccine sooner rather than later, will save lives. Darwinism still is relevant.
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Offline Elexpatriado

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Re: Corona
« Reply #146 on: July 08, 2020, 01:39:13 PM »

Excellent post. At best the introduction of an effective vaccine sooner rather than later, will save lives. Darwinism still is relevant.


There wont be a vaccine or herd imunity for a long, long time, if ever, so better to live with it, and protect yourself and love ones with common sense precautions.


Or there is a bit of another hope..the virus may just weaken and go away by itself like SARS  and so many other viruses did.


I plan to go flying when I can, but will wear N95 mask, face goggles, gloves and antiseptic and stay away from people and only on airlines that take specific precautions.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 01:42:23 PM by Elexpatriado »

Offline robert angel

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Re: Corona
« Reply #147 on: July 08, 2020, 06:58:52 PM »

There wont be a vaccine or herd imunity for a long, long time, if ever, so better to live with it, and protect yourself and love ones with common sense precautions.


Or there is a bit of another hope..the virus may just weaken and go away by itself like SARS  and so many other viruses did.


I plan to go flying when I can, but will wear N95 mask, face goggles, gloves and antiseptic and stay away from people and only on airlines that take specific precautions.




No vaccines for:


SARS
Chagas disease (American trypanosomiasis)
Chikungunya
Dengue
Cytomegalovirus
HIV/AIDS
Hookworm infection
Leishmaniasis
Malaria
Respiratory
Syncytial Virus
Schistosomiasis

https://www.livescience.com/56598-deadliest-viruses-on-earth.html


There's still no vaccine for ugly, although if you drink enough alcohol,  it lessens the effect to where even ugly girls don't look half bad!


In a 'good year'---the flu--if it's not too virulent, it kills about half a million people a year, or about how many have died from covid-19 so far this year.


In a bad year, like the 1918 Spanish flu,18 million died. The experts are pretty much in agreement that we could get another Spanish flu, but that with the vast increases in travel and mobility, it'd be far, far worse. No vaccine there either. They tried unsuccessfully to create a vaccine for that, but not until the 1940's did vaccine development begin to take off. Even today, half the time they make a flu vaccine, it turns out to be ineffective,


In more recent years there have been other viruses, including MARS, Hanta and others--and no vaccine. Hell, there's no vaccine for plague--they feel it's not a high enough incidence problem.


Just like wildlife--animals, plants and insects, viruses today go nation to nation through our airports and shipping ports daily.



« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 08:25:20 PM by robert angel »
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Re: Corona
« Reply #147 on: July 08, 2020, 06:58:52 PM »

Offline Calipro

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Re: Corona
« Reply #148 on: July 09, 2020, 01:23:16 PM »



No vaccines for:


SARS
Chagas disease (American trypanosomiasis)
Chikungunya
Dengue
Cytomegalovirus
HIV/AIDS
Hookworm infection
Leishmaniasis
Malaria
Respiratory
Syncytial Virus
Schistosomiasis

https://www.livescience.com/56598-deadliest-viruses-on-earth.html


There's still no vaccine for ugly, although if you drink enough alcohol,  it lessens the effect to where even ugly girls don't look half bad!


In a 'good year'---the flu--if it's not too virulent, it kills about half a million people a year, or about how many have died from covid-19 so far this year.


In a bad year, like the 1918 Spanish flu,18 million died. The experts are pretty much in agreement that we could get another Spanish flu, but that with the vast increases in travel and mobility, it'd be far, far worse. No vaccine there either. They tried unsuccessfully to create a vaccine for that, but not until the 1940's did vaccine development begin to take off. Even today, half the time they make a flu vaccine, it turns out to be ineffective,


In more recent years there have been other viruses, including MARS, Hanta and others--and no vaccine. Hell, there's no vaccine for plague--they feel it's not a high enough incidence problem.


Just like wildlife--animals, plants and insects, viruses today go nation to nation through our airports and shipping ports daily.

The difference is that none of the diseases you listed are as contagious as covid19

SARS was quit a bit deadlier and people showed symptoms right away so it died out.

It is still possible that covid19 will mutate into something less contagious or more deadly.

Both scenarios will cause the virus to die out quicker.

Offline robert angel

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Re: Corona
« Reply #149 on: July 09, 2020, 08:09:51 PM »
The difference is that none of the diseases you listed are as contagious as covid19

SARS was quit a bit deadlier and people showed symptoms right away so it died out.

It is still possible that covid19 will mutate into something less contagious or more deadly.

Both scenarios will cause the virus to die out quicker.

Mutations are part of the story of life itself. Inevitable. Today Bolivia's President and Venezuela's 2nd banana to the President,  were reported as being Covid-19 positive, joining Brazil's fearless leader.

Seems this virus itself varies and can effect two people of the same age, weight and physical fitness very differently.  Both could catch it, one might be almost totally asymptomatic,  the other might be laid up and suffer badly, then on and off bad effects for months--some otherwise fit and healthy '30 something' people haven't shaken it. It defies the very logic we want to see.

Until they have some reasonably effective vaccine,  guess we'll continue to lay low and be extra careful when we do venture out. We're eating pretty damn good at home with grocery runs every ten days or so.

Although generally avoiding restaurants, and crowds, tomorrow night we'll grab Korean takeout & a bottle of wine, head out to stretch of quieter ocean beach and just enjoy the breeze. A risk? Yes, but calculated.

I told my wife last night "I ought to take out $20-25k out of my 401k next January so we can dedicate it to travel and not worry". She reminded me: "You already did that this past January and it doesn't look like we're going to spend that anytime soon, so let's wait." I'd rather be breaking plates in Greece or grooving the Philippines but oh well, things could always be worse....
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