Economic Struggles

[mattman]

The bad news just keeps on rolling in. I'm talking everyday with with my fiancee. She is very worried for me. I am a small business owner, and I have to say that orders have taken a steep drop off. Almost overnight I went from big ticket customers to scraping the bottom the barrel to get what I can. People just aren't spending money. Is anyone else experiencing a slow down as far as business goes?

China put through a big stimulus package today ($586 billion). It boosted the Asian markets, but my investments here in the USA took another hit. It's killing me here. I hope things start to get better soon. Everyone keeps saying that it will get worse before it gets better, but I just wonder how much worse it will get?

Making due, but worried,
Matt

[Dave H]

Hey Matt,

The way the economy is going, we may move to the Philippines. We could live like royalty off my retirement there. My wife and I can't get jobs here that we are more than qualified for. I guess college degrees, speaking English, dependability, politeness, non smoking, and not having a cellphone glued to the side of one's head are big negatives here! My wife, being Asian, is a 'super minority,' but Asians don't count as minorities here. I'm now a minority here myself, which counts for nothing!

It really doesn't pay to be a small business owner in the US! You open a dry cleaners and some Clinton appointed Federal Judge sues you for 54million over a pair of pants! I have a plan which has giving me  new HOPE. I am checking how much welfare I am entitled to. I am totally serious and have several interviews scheduled so far. I'm disabled, but you guys can get benefits too if you have a "non desire to work."  I'm going to CHANGE! Obama says "Yes we can!"  So I am!  Time for the government to take care of me for a CHANGE and pay me back! My new motto is "Ask not what you can do for your country, but what your country can do for you!" I have seen the light!  I am taking whatever the government will 'give' me.  God bless America! 

Dave

[mattman]

The way the economy is going, we may move to the Philippines. We could live like royalty off my retirement there. My wife and I can't get jobs here that we are more than qualified for. I guess college degrees, speaking English, dependability, politeness, non smoking, and not having a cellphone glued to the side of one's head are big negatives here!

I understand completely. I don't have retirement (yet) and rely on my own smarts and work to make money till I do.  I still have considered working and living in China just to get by. The old fashioned American work ethic of get educated, get a good job, and work hard hasn't really worked out this year. I watched everything I worked for just walk away from me in the last couple months.

It really doesn't pay to be a small business owner in the US! You open a dry cleaners and some Clinton appointed Federal Judge sues you for 54million over a pair of pants! I have a plan which has giving me  new HOPE.  I am checking how much welfare I am entitled to. I am totally serious and have several interviews scheduled so far. I'm disabled, but you guys can get benefits too if you have a "non desire to work."  I'm going to CHANGE!  Obama says "Yes we can!"  So I am!  Grin Time for the government to take care of me for a CHANGE and pay me back! My new motto is "Ask not what you can do for your country, but what your country can do for you!" I have seen the light!  I am taking whatever the government will 'give' me.  God bless America! 

I get the reference, but I'll let the others catch on and open the "Can O Worms". Should be interesting. If I'm going to live in a communist country, I would rather it be one that admits it...Haha....said too much already.
 

[Bob_S]

Is anyone else experiencing a slow down as far as business goes?

I work for a big company that sells big ticket items with a long lead time, so I'm fairly well insulated against rapid market fluctuations as far as employment goes.  But as I am still 25 years from retirement, my 401K is heavily invested in growth stocks which are highly exposed.  So in the past few months, I've seen a good 5 years worth of investment and interest growth just vanish.  Ouch.    Well, it'll all come back eventually.  Just gotta wait it out.

[jm21-2]

One of my dad's friends was a year or so from retirement and had about 90% of his retirement (life savings) in stocks. Ouch.

[stevjulietb]

Its all about attitude.  This country has been slowly sliding towards socialism (sp)?  When you give people something for nothing, it hurts them.  It erodes away their pride.  Give a man a fish, it feeds them for a day, teach them to fish and they eat for life.

Steveb

[Bear]

I work in a Green business and my company brags about posting a 20.3% profit margin and and increase on dividends of over 10%.  They didn't participate in the worldwide random speculation and we find ourselves in an extremely strong position.  Add that to the fact that most of our business in government mandated and you see my point.  We had an "all-hands" meeting last week and were told we had sufficient backlog and projected increases in sells to keep hire 6 more people if we knew anyone looking for work.  We finally last week filled our last position on the engineering teem that sat empty for over 2 years.  Of course raises are small but there are still the biyearly bonuses. 

Doesn't mean costs haven't skyrocketed.  I am amazed that my grocery bill is more than double two years ago - got to get that little one off formula on on milk .  My electric company made me sign a new 1 year contract just before Hurricane Ike hit at .22/kWh (up from 14/KWh) and since fuel costs have dropped 60% so I wonder where that profit is going?  Still my electric bill fell from $401 two months ago to $78 this month (that includes two weeks without power after Ike). 

Business seems to be okay for me but costs are unbelievable.  With 3 kids, payday to payday is it.

The Bear Family

[Marshall K]

It is really tough for us small business people right now.  I feel lucky that I just got a good one month project that will financially carry me through the end of the year.  I plan on leaving around January 1 for China until summer to ride out what looks like a very slow winter here for people in the trades.  (My friend, Pat the Plumber feels very fortunate to be married to Margie the Teacher right now).
It seems like every other Chinese person is a small business owner.  The entrepreneurial spirit is in their genes.  Yali is confident that I can be tutoring English to as many people as I can handle.  Who knows what the future will bring?  This country has a long way to go to recover from the long borrow and spend binge that government and households have been doing for the last decade.  There is plenty of blame to go around, but finger pointing won't change what has already happened.
It's time to get frugal, creative, and brave.

[Dave H]

I know two owners of small Filipino grocery stores. One will probably close within the next few months. The other is smaller and trying to hold out until business picks up. Both stores are now being financially assisted by the owners' wives who are both nurses.

Dave

[Dave H]

Still my electric bill fell from $401 two months ago to $78 this month (that includes two weeks without power after Ike). 

The Bear Family

Hey Bear,

It sounds like the power company estimated your meter reading. With the massive power outages, meter readers were likely assigned other tasks. They will probably catch up on your next bill with an additional charge for $100 or so.

Dave

[Bear]

I estimate payment was $2.11 last month.

The Bear family

[Dave H]

I estimate payment was $2.11 last month.

The Bear family

Hi Bear,

Dang! Who do they have running that office...Barney Frank?

[mattman]

Thanks for all the responses!!

Things are starting to pick up again, but I'm working alot harder for less money. Guess I just need to suck it up and get busy drumming up biz.

It's time to get frugal, creative, and brave.

Already there, working some new aspects and leads. Also helps that I finally got a couple calls from some big ticket repeat customers today. Breathing a little easier now.

Doesn't mean costs haven't skyrocketed.  I am amazed that my grocery bill is more than double two years ago - got to get that little one off formula on on milk

My son is 12 years old. I'm feeling the grocery crunch also. The bigger they get, the more they eat. Just change the formula bill over to the meat and potatoes bill in a few years. Geez that kid can eat!!! Lucky thing is you have a few years till the grocery bills get big again.

Its all about attitude.  This country has been slowly sliding towards socialism (sp)?  When you give people something for nothing, it hurts them.  It erodes away their pride.  Give a man a fish, it feeds them for a day, teach them to fish and they eat for life.

I completely agree with you. I work damn hard to have what I have. If it were given to me, I wouldn't appreciate it.

I work for a big company that sells big ticket items with a long lead time, so I'm fairly well insulated against rapid market fluctuations as far as employment goes.  But as I am still 25 years from retirement, my 401K is heavily invested in growth stocks which are highly exposed.  So in the past few months, I've seen a good 5 years worth of investment and interest growth just vanish.  Shocked Ouch.  Angry Cry  Well, it'll all come back eventually.  Just gotta wait it out.

I'm there with ya. I also make and sell high end products to customers with big budgets. These customers are my bread and butter, but the "average joe" orders of lower end products have been my main source of regular income. Those customers are gone, so now I have to rely on the much more volatile big ticket accounts. Lot's more ass kissing is in my future. Haha!!!

Thanks for all you input,
Matt 

[satori]

Things are likely to get worse.  Although rates are coming down, most instituitions are reluctant to lend and engaged in balance sheet repair.  IRI data show that consumers are cutting back on many basic items and looking to conserve.  Unemployment has ratcheted up and will likley reach 7% by year end, possibly 8+% into 2009.  While some things have imporved, the overall climate is still not good and likely to decline for another couple of quarters and then stagnate for a couple more.  It doesn't seem like the pullback in commodities has made its way to the consumer yet which is not surpirsing given the hits companies took when commodities were rising.  I understand the Chinese stimulus package extends into 2010 and it is not clear where some of the money will come from (some is supposed to come from the local governments) or exactly what it will be spent on.  Seems the market initially came up on the news and then retreated again.  The atmosphere of uncertainty and fear out there can become a self fulfilling prophecy.  Glad things are getting a little better for some of you guys.  Hang in there.

[xcited]

mattman, I really sympathize with you.  I'm certainly no financial expert, but I try to pay attention.  From what I understand it is the Government interference that is causing the problems.  You won't be getting a bailout, but these banks and companies that are still haven't been well managed.  So they don't fail and the investors can't decide where to invest.  If the bad companies could just fail then everyone could invest with confidence in the companies that were left.  I have even heard some histororians talking about how FDR's interference extended the "Great Depression" by many years.  Hopefully we won't make that same mistake again.

In the long run it is always guys like you who make this Country great and pull us out of problems like this.  Keep doing what you're doing.


Xcited

[Marshall K]

I'm no financial expert either, but this caught my eye:

http://businesssheet.alleyinsider.com/2008/11/bailout-junkets-of-2008-a-scrapbook 

How do we apply for some of this bailout money?

[mattman]

I'm no financial expert either, but this caught my eye:

http://businesssheet.alle...nkets-of-2008-a-scrapbook

How do we apply for some of this bailout money?

Yeah, I've seen that one. The major networks ran with it for a little while after the bailout.  Makes me sick when I see that kind of thing. I've always been one who never asks for financial help even when things have been really bad. I just buckle down and get through the rough times. Years ago during my divorce, I worked 3 jobs and rented a room in my buddy's basement for $50 a week. Worked from 7am to 1am 7 days a week to catch up. I'd like to see a few those AIG execs do that for a while. I'll stop before I start ranting. 

If the bad companies could just fail then everyone could invest with confidence in the companies that were left.  I have even heard some historians talking about how FDR's interference extended the "Great Depression" by many years.  Hopefully we won't make that same mistake again.

China's bailout looks alot like FDR's "New Deal" when you look into what is planned. We'll see how it works out for them. We'll have to see what the new administration does here at home. I'll stick with my usual philosophy of "hope for the best and plan for the worst". Best thing my dad ever taught me.

Take care everyone,
Matt

 

[utopiacowboy]

It's hard not to start on a rant when one thinks about the state of the country and how we got here but ranting doesn't solve anything.

We have been on a debt-fueled spending spree for the last couple of decades and now the chickens are coming home to roost. Instead of spending on investment (equipment, technology, infrastructure etc) we have been spending on consumer items we didn't need to begin with. Consumers are tapped out and they are going to hunker down and do what they need to do for the next couple of years eliminating debt (either by paying  it off, forgiveness, or bankruptcy). It's going to be a tough couple of years until the balance sheets are repaired. In the meantime our standard of living is going to decline drastically as we descend to the level of a third world nation.

Even in the Great Depression 75% of people were employed so even if we get up to 10% or 12% unemployment which I expect we will, it won't be any worse than the depression. Of course there is the possibility that the government's huge deficits will lead to hyperinflation in which case all bets are off.