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Author Topic: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.  (Read 4244 times)

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Offline mudd

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colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« on: May 20, 2018, 07:29:32 AM »
Thirty-six million Colombians who are eligible to vote will head to the ballot box on May 27, to elect their next president. In a race that began with eight official candidates on March 11, the number of candidates has been reduced to five. But, despite a narrowing playing field, Colombians, overall, remain deeply pessimistic and divided over the future of their country, most notably, the prospect of a lasting peace after a peace agreement was signed with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrilla.
In a survey conducted in April by Gallup, 70% of Colombians polled believe peace is now “on the wrong path,” and an even higher percentage (75%) are under the impression that the former Marxist rebels will not abide to the commitments set out in the Final Accord.
This widespread disenchantment has impacted the race to the presidency among the five candidates, from all sides of the political spectrum, committing themselves to a clean, open and non-violent campaign. Adhering to democratic principles and a depolarization of the political discourse has characterized this historic race, one in which all candidates have presented their platforms, and where they would lead Colombia if elected to the highest office in the country.

The 33rd president of Colombia will be one of five candidates: Iván Duque (Centro Democrático), Gustavo Petro (Colombia Humana), Germán Vargas Lleras (Cambio Radical), Sergio Fajardo (Coalición Colombia) and Humberto de la Calle (Liberal). These politicians, who have held diverse portfolios have publicly debated the future of the peace processes with FARC and ELN, state of the economy, future of the welfare system, health, education, infrastructure and trade, as well as how they will combat corruption and organized crime.
Even though polling data can be misleading or flat-out wrong – Colombia’s peace plebiscite, Brexit and Donald Trump’s upset victory are recent examples – trends do matter and are important. The poll released May 3 by the Centro Nacional de Consultoría (CNC) for CM& news confirms a clear advantage by the 41-year old Bogotá economist Iván Duque over the former mayor of Bogotá, 58-year old Gustavo Petro.

According to the CNC, Duque has 38% of voting intention, followed by Petro (25%), Fajardo (17%), Vargas Lleras (7%) and De La Calle (4%). This poll maintains Duque in the lead, and has widened the gap with Petro by 4 percentage points over a similar poll conducted two weeks earlier. However, should Duque not reach 50% of the votes plus one on May 27, he will go to a second round with his closest running mate on June 17.
There are two probable scenarios regarding alliances and outcomes after May 27.
In the first one: Duque wins with a decisive lead with 35%-40% of the vote, but not enough to clinch victory on the first round. Petro comes in second place with 25%-30% of the vote. If the centrist independent candidate Fajardo is in third place, his percentages could split down the middle, benefitting both Duque and Petro, thereby narrowing the divide and making the run-off a cliff hanger.
As the former mayor of Colombia’s second largest city, Medellín, and former governor of Antioquia, the 61-year old Fajardo could see much of his paisa base shift towards to the right, joining Duque, the official candidate of another Antioquia governor and ex president of Colombia, Álvaro Uribe Vélez. But, Fajardo also has shown to have consolidated an important following in Bogotá, and the capital, after three left-wing mayors, tends to lean more left, than right.

read rest below
https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/elections-2018-colombia-decides-its-future/19646
« Last Edit: May 20, 2018, 07:34:04 AM by mudd »

Offline Calipro

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2018, 09:42:07 AM »
Thirty-six million Colombians who are eligible to vote will head to the ballot box on May 27, to elect their next president. In a race that began with eight official candidates on March 11, the number of candidates has been reduced to five. But, despite a narrowing playing field, Colombians, overall, remain deeply pessimistic and divided over the future of their country, most notably, the prospect of a lasting peace after a peace agreement was signed with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrilla.
In a survey conducted in April by Gallup, 70% of Colombians polled believe peace is now “on the wrong path,” and an even higher percentage (75%) are under the impression that the former Marxist rebels will not abide to the commitments set out in the Final Accord.
This widespread disenchantment has impacted the race to the presidency among the five candidates, from all sides of the political spectrum, committing themselves to a clean, open and non-violent campaign. Adhering to democratic principles and a depolarization of the political discourse has characterized this historic race, one in which all candidates have presented their platforms, and where they would lead Colombia if elected to the highest office in the country.

The 33rd president of Colombia will be one of five candidates: Iván Duque (Centro Democrático), Gustavo Petro (Colombia Humana), Germán Vargas Lleras (Cambio Radical), Sergio Fajardo (Coalición Colombia) and Humberto de la Calle (Liberal). These politicians, who have held diverse portfolios have publicly debated the future of the peace processes with FARC and ELN, state of the economy, future of the welfare system, health, education, infrastructure and trade, as well as how they will combat corruption and organized crime.
Even though polling data can be misleading or flat-out wrong – Colombia’s peace plebiscite, Brexit and Donald Trump’s upset victory are recent examples – trends do matter and are important. The poll released May 3 by the Centro Nacional de Consultoría (CNC) for CM& news confirms a clear advantage by the 41-year old Bogotá economist Iván Duque over the former mayor of Bogotá, 58-year old Gustavo Petro.

According to the CNC, Duque has 38% of voting intention, followed by Petro (25%), Fajardo (17%), Vargas Lleras (7%) and De La Calle (4%). This poll maintains Duque in the lead, and has widened the gap with Petro by 4 percentage points over a similar poll conducted two weeks earlier. However, should Duque not reach 50% of the votes plus one on May 27, he will go to a second round with his closest running mate on June 17.
There are two probable scenarios regarding alliances and outcomes after May 27.
In the first one: Duque wins with a decisive lead with 35%-40% of the vote, but not enough to clinch victory on the first round. Petro comes in second place with 25%-30% of the vote. If the centrist independent candidate Fajardo is in third place, his percentages could split down the middle, benefitting both Duque and Petro, thereby narrowing the divide and making the run-off a cliff hanger.
As the former mayor of Colombia’s second largest city, Medellín, and former governor of Antioquia, the 61-year old Fajardo could see much of his paisa base shift towards to the right, joining Duque, the official candidate of another Antioquia governor and ex president of Colombia, Álvaro Uribe Vélez. But, Fajardo also has shown to have consolidated an important following in Bogotá, and the capital, after three left-wing mayors, tends to lean more left, than right.

read rest below
https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/elections-2018-colombia-decides-its-future/19646


I don't find Colombians nearly has dogmatic about their political views as Americans.


As it stands now.....just doesn't look like anyone of the candidates has a chance at winning 51% or more of the vote so a run off is coming. And another month of turmoil.


But in the long run....the only thing that worries me about Colombia's future is Venezuela.


The alarm bells don't seem to be going off yet but if a few million more homeless and hungry  Venezuelans enter Colombia....it could turn into one hell of a mess.




Offline mudd

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2018, 10:34:27 AM »
Quote
[size=0px]But in the long run....the only thing that worries me about Colombia's future is Venezuela.[/size][/size][size=0px]The alarm bells don't seem to be going off yet but if a few million more homeless and hungry  Venezuelans enter Colombia....it could turn into one hell of a mess. [/size]
[size=0px]


in the colombian cities more close to the  venezuela border, its now a big problem. but down here it isnt such a problem,yet.
  Probably will get worse in the coming months due to the lack of Venezuelan to export its oil down by 20% thanks to Conoco taking 3 refineries last week. just another nail in the coffin for socialism toilet of the venz govt[/size]

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2018, 10:34:27 AM »

Offline utopiacowboy

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2018, 11:10:13 AM »
My wife's family is split between the evangelical nuts who support Duque and herself and the other members who support Petro. They have really been antagonistic towards one another about this almost like the pro and anti Trumpers here. She made sure that she and her three kids are all registered to vote so they can all vote for Petro.


If Duque wins Colombia is going to slide into civil war fairly soon much like the US is headed for civil war in the next decade.


Uruguay is really looking good - sensible, progressive, harmonious. With the highest voter participation rate in the world, it shows what is possible when the voice of the people is actually expressed.

Offline Elexpatriado

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2018, 11:38:59 AM »
My wife's family is split between the evangelical nuts who support Duque and herself and the other members who support Petro. They have really been antagonistic towards one another about this almost like the pro and anti Trumpers here. She made sure that she and her three kids are all registered to vote so they can all vote for Petro.


If Duque wins Colombia is going to slide into civil war fairly soon much like the US is headed for civil war in the next decade.


Uruguay is really looking good - sensible, progressive, harmonious. With the highest voter participation rate in the world, it shows what is possible when the voice of the people is actually expressed.


If Petro gets in the whole place will be foched.. big g
Time

Cant believe how people  would be so stupid and greedy to vote for someone.like that

The guy is open to expropriation of property of the ricos and  multinationals.

A Colombian would have to.be pretty ignorant or  brainwashed to vote for someone like him after seeing what happened next door.

Man am I glad I didnt invest a nickel in this place and can leAve in a flash


Offline mudd

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2018, 07:07:15 PM »
Colombia has been going down a slow slide since Uribe left office. If Petro actually wins, it will be much faster slide down the toilet. Petro did a pretty bad job running bogota.i know a rich colombian in bogota, very well connected to many upper people. He was very clear, if Petro wins, he and others already have plans to sell most their exposed businesses and some assets and move to the US or Chile.

reminds me of a girl from venezuela whos parents did the same when Chavez took over, boy did they make the right decision to sell and leave venezuela.

Offline Jhengsman

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2018, 09:54:53 PM »
The Philippines just had local barangay (village and town councils) elections at least 33 were killed.

Offline utopiacowboy

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2018, 07:00:26 AM »

If Petro gets in the whole place will be foched.. big g
Time

Cant believe how people  would be so stupid and greedy to vote for someone.like that

The guy is open to expropriation of property of the ricos and  multinationals.

A Colombian would have to.be pretty ignorant or  brainwashed to vote for someone like him after seeing what happened next door.

Man am I glad I didnt invest a nickel in this place and can leAve in a flash


Petro's model is Jose Mujica, president of Uruguay from 2010 to 2015. A former Tupamaro guerrilla leader he was a great president of a wonderful little country.

Offline buencamino2

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2018, 05:05:43 PM »
I don,t think the status quo is going to change much regardless of who is elected as president as that depends more on the local elections. What does concern me though is that I don,t think either of the current top contenders i.e. Duque and Petro have the forward visión or intellectual capacity of Santos. The Venezuela problema will put a lot of pressure on whoever wins.

Offline Calipro

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2018, 05:45:17 PM »
I don,t think the status quo is going to change much regardless of who is elected as president as that depends more on the local elections. What does concern me though is that I don,t think either of the current top contenders i.e. Duque and Petro have the forward visión or intellectual capacity of Santos. The Venezuela problema will put a lot of pressure on whoever wins.


Isn't there a colombian version of Trump running that can just close the boarder and deport the Venezuelans that crossed into Colombia illegally.

Offline Elexpatriado

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2018, 07:36:47 AM »

Petro's model is Jose Mujica, president of Uruguay from 2010 to 2015. A former Tupamaro guerrilla leader he was a great president of a wonderful little country.


From a totally selfish and personal point of view, I really hope he doesnt get in.


I can see why the poorer people and the people with conscience, who see what is happening with the poor and destitute are disgusted with the Uribe-Duque- Paraco status quo mentality.


Uruguay is a poor comparison. Small population, mostly European heritage, close to major markets of Argentina and Brazil, unlike Colombia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Peru Ecuador.


Hard line socialism never works in Latin America. And the countries in the Northern part of the South America  are not socially advanced enough to support a more moderate socialism.


Offline mudd

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2018, 07:24:02 AM »
talked to a few younger voters yesterday who think Petro is the way they think colombia should go into the future.so i asked them " how was colombia doing before Uribe came into office? could you drive from Medellin to Bogota or Barranquilla or visit a small town 3 or 4 hours outside medlelin? " did you have to worry about being robbed or kidnapped or killed? "

not one could answer the question, pretty sad that the younger voters really have no idea how bad colombia was before.

soon will see who wins, doubt none will get the 51% needed to win.

Offline robert angel

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2018, 08:02:43 AM »
The Philippines just had local barangay (village and town councils) elections at least 33 were killed.

Missed that post. Amazingly, they basically said that in terms of election related killings, there, that 2018 was a better year than most. Some years, like 2013, a 100 or more people have been killed.

https://www.google.com/amp/m.gulfnews.com/amp/news/asia/philippines/philippines-despite-reports-of-election-related-deaths-polls-less-violent-police-say-1.2221190
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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2018, 08:02:43 AM »

Offline robert angel

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2018, 08:59:11 AM »
http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/17/news/economy/venezuela-cash-crisis/index.html

We were down in Aruba last year and a lot of the people there are afraid of Venezuelan desparados. On a really clear day we could see the coastline of Venezuela and they come by boat to sell fruit and vegetables.

The ATMs don't  carry US dollars, as the Venezuelans clean them out, to counter the est. 4000% inflation on their currency, the bolivar.

The oil industry has all but collapsed with much of the equipment in disrepair. What little oil--a very small fraction of past production, is shipped unrefined.

Many staple foods, as well as medicine, baby formula and diapers, are hard to find.

Surreal. Basically their whole economy was centered around oil. Between US sanctions, sanctions that some other countries agreed too, the deterioration of their oil industry infrastructure's equipment after oil prices plummeted, they're in a bad spot.

It's already an issue in Colombia's politics, with Venezuelans trying to escape and to convert currency and it doesn't look like it's going to get better anytime soon.

What was once a beautiful country with lovely ladies--a great vacation spot, with near European sophistication and architecture, is now almost an apocalyptic nightmare.

Goes to show what socialism, putting all your economic eggs in one basket and pissing off a global superpower can do for a nation...
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Offline buencamino3

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2018, 12:00:52 PM »
Second round June 7th.
Hermosamente feliz

Offline utopiacowboy

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #15 on: May 29, 2018, 07:07:42 AM »
My wife spent all day on Sunday supervising the polling station which the Colombian consulate in Houston had set up in San Antonio. About half of the 700 people registered to vote from this area voted. Needless to say there was a lot of spirited conversation.

Offline robert angel

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #16 on: May 29, 2018, 08:05:02 AM »
Thirty-six million Colombians who are eligible to vote will head to the ballot box on May 27, to elect their next president.

Colombia's 2018 population is less than fifty million people. Thirty six million are eligible to vote?

Must be a lot of absentee ballots....
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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #17 on: May 29, 2018, 11:22:10 AM »
Some problems facing the upcoming runoff include 1. getting people to leave their homes while the Copa Mundial de Futbol is on tv 2. the large number (after Petro) of people who voted for Farjardo may just abstain. 3. fathers day has to be moved. According to the first round 35% of Colombians don´t identify with either Duque or Petro.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2018, 11:27:19 AM by buencamino3 »
Hermosamente feliz

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #18 on: June 02, 2018, 10:12:20 PM »
It's interesting to see some of the differences as well as similarities around voting.  It sounds like a number of the Colombian voters are disenchanted with their candidates in the same way that more and more voters in the US are becoming disenchanted with the two party system. 


Some Panamanians seem to be unhappy with their current President and long for the Martinelli days whom I believe is still being held in Miami awaiting extradition... hmmm... so as long as there are jobs and the country seems to be prospering they don't mind that little bit about spying and embezzling.   ??? :)


Offline robert angel

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #19 on: June 02, 2018, 10:48:25 PM »
It's interesting to see some of the differences as well as similarities around voting.  It sounds like a number of the Colombian voters are disenchanted with their candidates in the same way that more and more voters in the US are becoming disenchanted with the two party system. 


Some Panamanians seem to be unhappy with their current President and long for the Martinelli days whom I believe is still being held in Miami awaiting extradition... hmmm... so as long as there are jobs and the country seems to be prospering they don't mind that little bit about spying and embezzling.   ??? :)

Maybe it's too bad that this guy died last May---for sooo many years, he was the USA's  'go to guy' in Panama. Odd that we've looked the other way on other mega narcotics dealers, movers, presently in Afghanistan, (which every year since we've been occupying Afghanistan, has broken previous opium produiction harvests/exports, fields within eyesight of very active US Military bases) and ignored other S. & C. American leaders caught up in drugs and money laundering.

We have technology that from outerspace, can read a behicle's license plate and detect humans moving along trails beneath thick jungle canopy.

But we forget that George Bush Senior, whilst head of the CIA, put the most unlikely candidate, Saddam Hussain, in power over Iraq, or that our govt backed Libya's Omar Khadaffi,  The Shah of Iran, Philippine president Marcos and countless other Asian European and African despots as leaders, AS LONG as they danced to OUR puppet strings.

But I almost wonder if Manuel Noriega hadn't died last May and was a bit younger, if President Trump might've considered granting him a full pardon, to help the USA's 'best interests'...

Hell, he's looking to pardon Kim K and Kanye W's drug dealing friends, why not??

As for Noriega, this below, beyond his legendary lucky red underwear, is pretty flipped out reading!

https://www.doktorsnake.com/2010/01/09/panama-dictator-general-manuel-noriega-hexed-u-s-presidents/
« Last Edit: June 02, 2018, 11:28:18 PM by robert angel »
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Offline Wildstubby

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #20 on: June 03, 2018, 04:28:55 AM »
I am not shocked by that article. I remember reading about some of Quuadaffi's exploits before we did the raids on Libya in 1986. The stuff is still classified as far as I know. But it doesn't surprise me one bit and that article re-enforces it!

Offline robert angel

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #21 on: June 03, 2018, 10:35:03 AM »
I am not shocked by that article. I remember reading about some of Quuadaffi's exploits before we did the raids on Libya in 1986. The stuff is still classified as far as I know. But it doesn't surprise me one bit and that article re-enforces it!

It's a shame that in so many nations, the candidates in elections often boil down to tweedle dee or tweedle dum. Big money, big hair, whitened teeth, a ton of advertising money later, and you have a 'leader' that looks like a game show host, but is more the same than different from his or her opponent.

In most places, during elections, they might say the vilest things about each other, talking trash about each other  big time. But after the election's over, they're all sweetness and light with each other. Just like boxing or 'big time' wrestling.

Then you sometimes get the mercurial, charismatic leader, who in addition to having most or all the above  'characteristics', appeals to an overwhelming amount of the poor and disenfranchised middle class, like a messiah, whipping them up into a blind nationalistic fervor. Like lemmings, the people would follow a leader like that off a cliff.


That usually leads to economic woes and wars that ironically serve to improve the economy. Wars are great for business. Just look at major global economic recessions and depressions  over the last 100 years and note how closely wars have followed their occurances. Uncanny.

Seems that regardless, you just can't win...
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Offline pachris

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Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2018, 01:16:32 AM »
Maybe it's too bad that this guy died last May---for sooo many years, he was the USA's  'go to guy' in Panama. Odd that we've looked the other way on other mega narcotics dealers, movers, presently in Afghanistan, (which every year since we've been occupying Afghanistan, has broken previous opium produiction harvests/exports, fields within eyesight of very active US Military bases) and ignored other S. & C. American leaders caught up in drugs and money laundering.

We have technology that from outerspace, can read a behicle's license plate and detect humans moving along trails beneath thick jungle canopy.

But we forget that George Bush Senior, whilst head of the CIA, put the most unlikely candidate, Saddam Hussain, in power over Iraq, or that our govt backed Libya's Omar Khadaffi,  The Shah of Iran, Philippine president Marcos and countless other Asian European and African despots as leaders, AS LONG as they danced to OUR puppet strings.

But I almost wonder if Manuel Noriega hadn't died last May and was a bit younger, if President Trump might've considered granting him a full pardon, to help the USA's 'best interests'...

Hell, he's looking to pardon Kim K and Kanye W's drug dealing friends, why not??

As for Noriega, this below, beyond his legendary lucky red underwear, is pretty flipped out reading!

https://www.doktorsnake.com/2010/01/09/panama-dictator-general-manuel-noriega-hexed-u-s-presidents/


That was interesting to know about Noriega.  I guess I'm still a little naive and forget that there are people in the world who believe stabbing an effigy has any impact on the person.  Now if anyone wants to create one of me with pockets and stuff the pockets full of money... Well, won't impact me anyway but the thought is nice. :)


Regarding politics, you said in in a follow-up post I think.  candidates boil down to tweedle dee or tweedle dum.  Maddening.  Given the population of any country it would seem that there are likely people who would be more representative but they don't have the money or desire to get into the minefield of politics.  Guess I can't blame them.  I'm not exactly rushing anywhere near a ballot to get my name on it!

Planet-Love.com

Re: colombian elections, could be a scary place this year.
« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2018, 01:16:32 AM »

 

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